{"F": {"ts_code": "000537.SZ", "name": "绿发电力", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "公用事业", "sw2": "电力", "sw3": "风力发电", "ind": "电力", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19931210", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.48, "pe_ttm": 32.3146, "pb": 0.7739, "dv_ttm": 2.2091, "total_mv": 1537676.9892, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [30.0, 29.0, 53.4, 53.5, 54.7, 47.1], "rev_series": [197.5, 162.4, 34.3, 36.9, 38.4, 48.9], "np_series": [22.1, -13.6, 6.3, 9.2, 10.1, 8.0], "roe_series": [15.3, -9.4, 4.2, 5.5, 5.5, 4.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 52.2, "np_ttm": 4.8, "ocf_ttm": 54.5, "fcf_ttm": -34.1, "fcf_yield": -22.2, "ocf_yield": 35.4, "gm_median": 53.4, "gm_std": 9.6, "gm_stab": 0.82, "gm_chg_2022": 23.5, "npm_median": 24.9, "roe_median": 4.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 75.4, "fix_assets": 749.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.77, "capex_dep": 3.62, "interest_debt": 636.5, "debt_ebitda": 14.3, "debt_ratio": 73.6, "debt_mv": 414.0, "payout": 40.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 12.6, "np_cagr3": 8.2, "rev_yoy": 14.2, "np_yoy": -52.5, "np_vol": 150.4, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 85.0, "earn_yield": 3.1, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 24.1, "fwd_pe2": 17.8, "fwd_g1": 34.0, "fwd_g2": 35.0, "peg": 0.69, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["电力", 47.0], ["其他商品销售", 2.0], ["其他", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": -7.6, "ret_prev2_year": -3.6, "ret_ytd": -7.5, "ret_pivot": -1.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.1, "ret_60": -11.2, "ret_120": -39.0, "ret_250": -16.5, "mdd_250": -44.1, "vol_250": 44.2, "pos_52w": 60.4}, "S": {"duration": 55, "pricing": 67, "hard": 100, "bondness": 50}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 32.3 倍、股息率 2.2%、毛利率近 5 年中位 53.4%、固定资产占比 75%、有息负债/EBITDA 14.3 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 75%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 53.4%,稳定度 82%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -22.2%(经营现金流/市值 35.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 53.4%,稳定度 82%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 23.5 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 75%,资本开支/折旧 3.62 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 32.3 倍 粗算,约 85%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -16%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 44%,现价在 52 周高点的 60%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -1% / -11% / -39%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电力」109 家中位:PE 27.8 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 22.5% / 固定资产占比 61% / 分红率 42%。", "绿发电力:PE 比行业中位高 4.5倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 30.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 14.7个百分点。"]}}