{"F": {"ts_code": "000530.SZ", "name": "冰山冷热", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "制冷空调设备", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19931208", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.34, "pe_ttm": 146.9681, "pb": 1.4252, "dv_ttm": 0.9363, "total_mv": 450275.475, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [17.1, 11.5, 12.3, 16.8, 16.9, 16.9], "rev_series": [17.3, 20.9, 28.9, 48.2, 45.3, 44.0], "np_series": [0.2, -2.7, 0.2, 0.5, 1.1, 0.6], "roe_series": [0.6, -8.4, 0.6, 1.6, 3.6, 2.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 42.0, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_ttm": -1.4, "fcf_yield": -3.1, "ocf_yield": 0.6, "gm_median": 16.8, "gm_std": 2.5, "gm_stab": 0.85, "gm_chg_2022": -4.8, "npm_median": 1.1, "roe_median": 1.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 16.5, "fix_assets": 12.3, "goodwill_ratio": 3.8, "pb_calc": 1.43, "capex_dep": 1.25, "interest_debt": 7.2, "debt_ebitda": 3.8, "debt_ratio": 56.7, "debt_mv": 16.0, "payout": 50.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 15.0, "np_cagr3": 50.3, "rev_yoy": -8.6, "np_yoy": -40.0, "np_vol": 583.6, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.7, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["工业产品", 70.0], ["安装工程", 25.0], ["其他产品及服务", 2.0], ["其他业务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 23.0, "ret_prev2_year": 13.4, "ret_ytd": -26.5, "ret_pivot": 50.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 8.3, "ret_60": -6.8, "ret_120": -16.8, "ret_250": -19.6, "mdd_250": -44.6, "vol_250": 46.2, "pos_52w": 65.6}, "S": {"duration": 97, "pricing": 42, "hard": 26, "bondness": 40}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 147.0 倍,估值里约 97% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 16%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 16%,毛利率近 5 年中位 16.8%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.1%(经营现金流/市值 0.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 16.8%,稳定度 85%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 16%,资本开支/折旧 1.25 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 147.0 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -20%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 46%,现价在 52 周高点的 66%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / -7% / -17%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "冰山冷热:PE 比行业中位高 96.4倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 11.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 4.3个百分点。"]}}