{"F": {"ts_code": "000529.SZ", "name": "广弘控股", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "食品加工", "sw3": "肉制品", "ind": "食品加工", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19931118", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.08, "pe_ttm": 36.2144, "pb": 0.9314, "dv_ttm": 2.3622, "total_mv": 296565.5232, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [20.6, 18.2, 10.2, 4.0, 4.7, 3.9], "rev_series": [33.9, 36.4, 34.2, 27.9, 23.4, 20.6], "np_series": [3.0, 3.3, 9.2, 2.1, 1.2, 1.2], "roe_series": [16.6, 15.5, 34.4, 6.9, 3.9, 3.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 19.6, "np_ttm": 0.8, "ocf_ttm": -1.5, "fcf_ttm": -4.7, "fcf_yield": -15.8, "ocf_yield": -5.0, "gm_median": 4.7, "gm_std": 5.5, "gm_stab": -0.17, "gm_chg_2022": -10.4, "npm_median": 8.9, "roe_median": 6.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 22.0, "fix_assets": 15.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.93, "capex_dep": 2.64, "interest_debt": 29.8, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 53.7, "debt_mv": 100.6, "payout": 57.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -15.5, "np_cagr3": -48.8, "rev_yoy": -9.0, "np_yoy": -55.7, "np_vol": 87.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 86.0, "earn_yield": 2.8, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 35.0], ["冻品销售", 21.0], ["冻品", 21.0], ["其他业务", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 4.1, "ret_prev2_year": -11.6, "ret_ytd": -13.8, "ret_pivot": 8.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 7.6, "ret_60": 8.5, "ret_120": -14.5, "ret_250": -17.4, "mdd_250": -33.7, "vol_250": 24.1, "pos_52w": 79.0}, "S": {"duration": 60, "pricing": 6, "hard": 35, "bondness": 57}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 36.2 倍、股息率 2.4%、毛利率近 5 年中位 4.7%、固定资产占比 22%、资产负债率 54%:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 22%,毛利率近 5 年中位 4.7%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -15.8%(经营现金流/市值 -5.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 4.7%,稳定度 -17%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -10.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 22%,资本开支/折旧 2.64 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 36.2 倍 粗算,约 86%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -17%,最大回撤 -34%,年化波动 24%,现价在 52 周高点的 79%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / 8% / -14%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「食品加工」27 家中位:PE 29.8 / 股息率 2.4% / 毛利率 23.4% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 62%。", "广弘控股:PE 比行业中位高 6.4倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位低 18.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 6.5个百分点。"]}}