{"F": {"ts_code": "000528.SZ", "name": "柳工", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "工程机械", "sw3": "工程机械整机", "ind": "工程机械", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19931118", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.94, "pe_ttm": 11.2314, "pb": 0.8626, "dv_ttm": 3.9749, "total_mv": 1620216.7866, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [20.4, 17.5, 16.8, 20.8, 22.5, 22.4], "rev_series": [230.0, 287.0, 264.8, 275.2, 300.6, 331.4], "np_series": [13.3, 10.0, 6.0, 8.7, 13.3, 16.1], "roe_series": [12.2, 7.4, 3.9, 5.4, 7.8, 8.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 356.4, "np_ttm": 14.4, "ocf_ttm": 6.5, "fcf_ttm": -0.3, "fcf_yield": -0.2, "ocf_yield": 4.0, "gm_median": 20.8, "gm_std": 2.4, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": -3.6, "npm_median": 3.5, "roe_median": 7.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 12.1, "fix_assets": 67.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.3, "pb_calc": 0.84, "capex_dep": 1.02, "interest_debt": 106.7, "debt_ebitda": 3.8, "debt_ratio": 63.5, "debt_mv": 65.8, "payout": 40.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 7.8, "np_cagr3": 39.0, "rev_yoy": 13.7, "np_yoy": -13.5, "np_vol": 38.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 55.0, "earn_yield": 8.9, "consensus_n": 16, "fwd_pe": 8.7, "fwd_pe2": 6.9, "fwd_g1": 29.0, "fwd_g2": 26.0, "peg": 0.33, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 44.0], ["土石方机械", 29.0], ["其他工程机械及零部件等", 12.0], ["其他工程机械及零部件", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": 0.7, "ret_prev2_year": 92.9, "ret_ytd": -31.2, "ret_pivot": -19.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -5.0, "ret_60": -3.3, "ret_120": -20.6, "ret_250": -27.9, "mdd_250": -39.7, "vol_250": 31.0, "pos_52w": 63.4}, "S": {"duration": 24, "pricing": 46, "hard": 19, "bondness": 62}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 41%、股息率 4.0%、营收 3 年复合 7.8%、有息负债/EBITDA 3.8 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 12%,毛利率近 5 年中位 20.8%。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.2%(经营现金流/市值 4.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 20.8%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 12%,资本开支/折旧 1.02 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 11.2 倍 粗算,约 55%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -28%,最大回撤 -40%,年化波动 31%,现价在 52 周高点的 63%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -5% / -3% / -21%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「工程机械」35 家中位:PE 28.3 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 26.1% / 固定资产占比 17% / 分红率 33%。", "柳工:PE 比行业中位低 17.1倍;股息率 比行业中位高 3.0个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 5.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 5.1个百分点。"]}}