{"F": {"ts_code": "000526.SZ", "name": "学大教育", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "社会服务", "sw2": "教育", "sw3": "培训教育", "ind": "教育", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19931101", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 37.14, "pe_ttm": 17.0176, "pb": 3.6581, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 452592.1254, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [25.8, 26.2, 28.0, 36.5, 34.6, 33.5], "rev_series": [24.3, 25.3, 18.0, 22.1, 27.9, 32.3], "np_series": [0.4, -5.4, 0.1, 1.5, 1.8, 2.0], "roe_series": [36.5, -189.0, 2.5, 29.6, 25.1, 22.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 34.7, "np_ttm": 2.7, "ocf_ttm": 8.5, "fcf_ttm": 7.3, "fcf_yield": 16.1, "ocf_yield": 18.8, "gm_median": 33.5, "gm_std": 4.0, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": 2.2, "npm_median": 5.9, "roe_median": 22.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 5.9, "fix_assets": 2.3, "goodwill_ratio": 31.8, "pb_calc": 3.66, "capex_dep": 3.85, "interest_debt": 10.7, "debt_ebitda": 1.3, "debt_ratio": 68.9, "debt_mv": 23.6, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 21.5, "np_cagr3": 161.7, "rev_yoy": 12.9, "np_yoy": 30.9, "np_vol": 753.4, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 71.0, "earn_yield": 5.9, "consensus_n": 21, "fwd_pe": 14.0, "fwd_pe2": 11.6, "fwd_g1": 22.0, "fwd_g2": 20.0, "peg": 0.7, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["教育培训服务费收入", 49.0], ["教育培训服务", 49.0], ["其他业务", 2.0], ["设备租赁收入", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": -6.8, "ret_prev2_year": -15.9, "ret_ytd": -5.3, "ret_pivot": -24.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.2, "ret_60": 43.7, "ret_120": 6.0, "ret_250": -28.2, "mdd_250": -54.0, "vol_250": 42.8, "pos_52w": 69.4}, "S": {"duration": 35, "pricing": 57, "hard": 9, "bondness": 4}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["商誉占比高", "资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 31%,PE TTM 17.0 倍 但前瞻 PE 14.0 倍,PEG 0.70。", "自由现金流 7.3 亿(正),次年预期增速 20%(21 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 33.5%),硬资产占比 6%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 16.1%(经营现金流/市值 18.8%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 33.5%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.2 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 6%,资本开支/折旧 3.85 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 17.0 倍 粗算,约 71%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -28%,最大回撤 -54%,年化波动 43%,现价在 52 周高点的 69%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / 44% / 6%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「教育」17 家中位:PE 96.5 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 43.0% / 固定资产占比 6% / 分红率 49%。", "学大教育:PE 比行业中位低 79.5倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 9.5个百分点;固定资产占比 与行业中位持平。"]}}