{"F": {"ts_code": "000521.SZ", "name": "长虹美菱", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "家用电器", "sw2": "白色家电", "sw3": "冰洗", "ind": "白色家电", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19931018", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.91, "pe_ttm": 98.758, "pb": 0.8607, "dv_ttm": 4.1675, "total_mv": 505692.5367, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [16.5, 12.0, 13.7, 13.9, 11.2, 10.5], "rev_series": [153.9, 180.3, 202.2, 242.5, 286.0, 304.1], "np_series": [-0.9, 0.5, 2.4, 7.4, 7.0, 4.1], "roe_series": [-1.7, 1.1, 4.9, 13.5, 11.7, 6.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 284.7, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": -1.8, "fcf_ttm": -5.7, "fcf_yield": -11.2, "ocf_yield": -3.5, "gm_median": 12.0, "gm_std": 1.4, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": -2.8, "npm_median": 1.4, "roe_median": 6.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 9.1, "fix_assets": 24.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.86, "capex_dep": 1.32, "interest_debt": 11.0, "debt_ebitda": 2.6, "debt_ratio": 77.0, "debt_mv": 21.7, "payout": 48.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 14.6, "np_cagr3": 18.8, "rev_yoy": -10.7, "np_yoy": -86.1, "np_vol": 149.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 1.0, "consensus_n": 6, "fwd_pe": 13.0, "fwd_pe2": 11.4, "fwd_g1": 661.0, "fwd_g2": 14.0, "peg": 0.93, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["空调器", 30.0], ["空调", 30.0], ["冰箱、冰柜", 16.0], ["冰箱", 16.0]], "ret_prev_year": -16.8, "ret_prev2_year": 59.1, "ret_ytd": -22.6, "ret_pivot": -44.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.0, "ret_60": -12.6, "ret_120": -20.6, "ret_250": -36.7, "mdd_250": -38.5, "vol_250": 29.7, "pos_52w": 63.7}, "S": {"duration": 92, "pricing": 43, "hard": 15, "bondness": 55}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["现金流红利", "股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 98.8 倍,估值里约 95% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 9%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(6 篇研报)前瞻 PE 13.0 倍,次年 11.4 倍,PEG 0.93。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 9%,毛利率近 5 年中位 12.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -11.2%(经营现金流/市值 -3.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 12.0%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 9%,资本开支/折旧 1.32 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 98.8 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -37%,最大回撤 -38%,年化波动 30%,现价在 52 周高点的 64%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 0% / -13% / -21%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「白色家电」11 家中位:PE 13.9 / 股息率 4.4% / 毛利率 20.8% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 49%。", "长虹美菱:PE 比行业中位高 84.9倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 8.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 5.4个百分点。"]}}