{"F": {"ts_code": "000520.SZ", "name": "凤凰航运", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "航运港口", "sw3": "航运", "ind": "航运港口", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19931025", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.44, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 10.0495, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 449365.074, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [11.7, 21.6, 9.0, 2.0, -0.7, 6.2], "rev_series": [7.2, 9.3, 10.4, 10.1, 8.9, 7.5], "np_series": [0.1, 1.0, 0.4, -0.1, -0.8, -0.4], "roe_series": [2.5, 20.5, 6.8, -1.6, -16.5, -10.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 10.8, "np_ttm": -0.2, "ocf_ttm": 0.7, "fcf_ttm": -0.4, "fcf_yield": -0.9, "ocf_yield": 1.5, "gm_median": 6.2, "gm_std": 7.7, "gm_stab": -0.25, "gm_chg_2022": -2.7, "npm_median": -0.9, "roe_median": -1.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 43.5, "fix_assets": 3.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 10.05, "capex_dep": 6.48, "interest_debt": 0.3, "debt_ebitda": 0.3, "debt_ratio": 45.9, "debt_mv": 0.8, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -10.2, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 95.7, "np_yoy": 2329.7, "np_vol": 529.2, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["运输收入", 48.0], ["运输业", 48.0], ["船员派遣服务等", 2.0], ["船员派遣服务、资产出租", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 3.4, "ret_prev2_year": 69.0, "ret_ytd": -8.3, "ret_pivot": 94.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 12.4, "ret_60": 6.0, "ret_120": 0.0, "ret_250": -10.1, "mdd_250": -33.2, "vol_250": 47.7, "pos_52w": 84.3}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 9, "hard": 70, "bondness": 21}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.2 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 46%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 1.5%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 44%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 6.2%,稳定度 -25%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.9%(经营现金流/市值 1.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 6.2%,稳定度 -25%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 44%,资本开支/折旧 6.48 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -10%,最大回撤 -33%,年化波动 48%,现价在 52 周高点的 84%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 12% / 6% / 0%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「航运港口」35 家中位:PE 17.1 / 股息率 1.7% / 毛利率 27.0% / 固定资产占比 47% / 分红率 41%。", "凤凰航运:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 20.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 3.6个百分点。"]}}