{"F": {"ts_code": "000519.SZ", "name": "中兵红箭", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "国防军工", "sw2": "地面兵装Ⅱ", "sw3": "地面兵装Ⅲ", "ind": "地面兵装Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19931008", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 15.8, "pe_ttm": 183.9533, "pb": 2.1195, "dv_ttm": 0.1582, "total_mv": 2200243.22, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [17.6, 20.7, 28.9, 32.3, 15.2, 14.3], "rev_series": [64.6, 75.1, 67.1, 61.2, 45.7, 92.7], "np_series": [2.7, 4.9, 8.2, 8.3, -3.3, 0.4], "roe_series": [3.3, 5.5, 8.7, 8.2, -3.2, 0.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 101.1, "np_ttm": 1.2, "ocf_ttm": 11.2, "fcf_ttm": 2.7, "fcf_yield": 1.2, "ocf_yield": 5.1, "gm_median": 20.7, "gm_std": 7.2, "gm_stab": 0.65, "gm_chg_2022": 11.3, "npm_median": 6.5, "roe_median": 5.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 30.4, "fix_assets": 56.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.12, "capex_dep": 1.64, "interest_debt": 7.2, "debt_ebitda": 1.0, "debt_ratio": 43.3, "debt_mv": 3.3, "payout": 46.4, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 11.4, "np_cagr3": -62.9, "rev_yoy": 38.2, "np_yoy": 191.4, "np_vol": 89.4, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.5, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 47.2, "fwd_pe2": 32.6, "fwd_g1": 290.0, "fwd_g2": 45.0, "peg": 1.05, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["特种装备", 44.0], ["超硬材料及制品", 26.0], ["超硬材料及其制品", 26.0], ["汽车零部件", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 26.1, "ret_prev2_year": 3.3, "ret_ytd": -13.1, "ret_pivot": 30.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 7.0, "ret_60": -15.6, "ret_120": -13.4, "ret_250": -28.7, "mdd_250": -40.5, "vol_250": 43.4, "pos_52w": 70.7}, "S": {"duration": 99, "pricing": 44, "hard": 49, "bondness": 29}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 184.0 倍、股息率 0.2%、毛利率近 5 年中位 20.7%、固定资产占比 30%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 30%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 20.7%,稳定度 65%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.2%(经营现金流/市值 5.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 20.7%,稳定度 65%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 11.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 30%,资本开支/折旧 1.64 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 184.0 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -29%,最大回撤 -40%,年化波动 43%,现价在 52 周高点的 71%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 7% / -16% / -13%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「地面兵装Ⅱ」12 家中位:PE 107.3 / 股息率 0.2% / 毛利率 28.6% / 固定资产占比 25% / 分红率 42%。", "中兵红箭:PE 比行业中位高 76.7倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位低 7.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 5.8个百分点。"]}}