{"F": {"ts_code": "000514.SZ", "name": "渝开发", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "房地产", "sw2": "房地产开发", "sw3": "住宅开发", "ind": "房地产开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19930712", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.26, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 0.9914, "dv_ttm": 0.2347, "total_mv": 359446.446, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [40.6, 39.4, 34.9, 36.6, 22.9, 30.2], "rev_series": [6.2, 11.9, 9.0, 13.3, 3.9, 7.3], "np_series": [1.3, 1.6, 1.6, 1.1, -1.1, 0.1], "roe_series": [4.0, 4.7, 4.5, 2.9, -3.1, 0.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 9.8, "np_ttm": -1.9, "ocf_ttm": 6.1, "fcf_ttm": 6.1, "fcf_yield": 16.9, "ocf_yield": 17.0, "gm_median": 34.9, "gm_std": 5.8, "gm_stab": 0.83, "gm_chg_2022": -5.7, "npm_median": 7.1, "roe_median": 2.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 8.3, "fix_assets": 5.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.99, "capex_dep": 0.09, "interest_debt": 10.4, "debt_ebitda": 730.1, "debt_ratio": 41.6, "debt_mv": 29.0, "payout": 67.3, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -6.7, "np_cagr3": -65.4, "rev_yoy": 177.5, "np_yoy": -101.9, "np_vol": 103.4, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 47.0], ["住宅销售", 33.0], ["物业管理", 5.0], ["石黄隧道经营权收入及其他", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 19.8, "ret_prev2_year": -1.2, "ret_ytd": -13.2, "ret_pivot": 14.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 10.4, "ret_60": 2.2, "ret_120": -13.4, "ret_250": -28.5, "mdd_250": -45.3, "vol_250": 37.8, "pos_52w": 65.0}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 50, "hard": 13, "bondness": 60}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -1.9 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 42%,有息负债 10 亿,经营现金流/市值 17.0%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 8%,毛利率近 5 年中位 34.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 16.9%(经营现金流/市值 17.0%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 34.9%,稳定度 83%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 8%,资本开支/折旧 0.09 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -28%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 38%,现价在 52 周高点的 65%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 10% / 2% / -13%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「房地产开发」83 家中位:PE 26.0 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 21.1% / 固定资产占比 2% / 分红率 36%。", "渝开发:PE ;股息率 比行业中位低 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 13.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 6.3个百分点。"]}}