{"F": {"ts_code": "000510.SZ", "name": "新金路", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学原料", "sw3": "氯碱", "ind": "化学原料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19930507", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 16.0, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 10.2885, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1037669.76, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [16.0, 26.6, 13.6, 7.0, 12.7, 10.2], "rev_series": [22.1, 29.8, 30.4, 25.9, 20.4, 16.6], "np_series": [0.7, 3.0, 0.1, -1.8, -0.6, -2.3], "roe_series": [7.0, 25.0, 0.9, -13.1, -4.8, -19.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 17.1, "np_ttm": -2.4, "ocf_ttm": 0.1, "fcf_ttm": -2.3, "fcf_yield": -2.3, "ocf_yield": 0.1, "gm_median": 12.7, "gm_std": 6.7, "gm_stab": 0.47, "gm_chg_2022": -2.3, "npm_median": -3.0, "roe_median": -4.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 55.2, "fix_assets": 14.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 10.29, "capex_dep": 2.38, "interest_debt": 5.0, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 56.7, "debt_mv": 4.8, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -18.3, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 6.1, "np_yoy": -10.5, "np_vol": 616.6, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": 27.4, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["树脂类产品", 13.0], ["树脂产品", 13.0], ["碱类产品", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": 221.7, "ret_prev2_year": -36.5, "ret_ytd": 38.2, "ret_pivot": 438.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -5.2, "ret_60": -9.1, "ret_120": -4.9, "ret_250": 186.7, "mdd_250": -50.6, "vol_250": 78.7, "pos_52w": 60.8}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 29, "hard": 88, "bondness": 23}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 55%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 12.7%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.3 个百分点;资产负债率 57%,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 55%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 12.7%,稳定度 47%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.3%(经营现金流/市值 0.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 12.7%,稳定度 47%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 55%,资本开支/折旧 2.38 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 187%,最大回撤 -51%,年化波动 79%,现价在 52 周高点的 61%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -5% / -9% / -5%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学原料」59 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 16.8% / 固定资产占比 47% / 分红率 40%。", "新金路:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 4.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 7.8个百分点。"]}}