{"F": {"ts_code": "000506.SZ", "name": "招金黄金", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "贵金属", "sw3": "黄金", "ind": "贵金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19930312", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": true, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 20.64, "pe_ttm": 56.2378, "pb": 21.2596, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1917492.7392, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [30.3, 11.9, -6.2, -3.1, 25.8, 40.2], "rev_series": [4.3, 9.1, 2.8, 2.8, 3.3, 5.3], "np_series": [-4.9, -1.3, 2.5, 0.1, -1.3, 1.6], "roe_series": [-62.3, -28.4, 49.8, 1.0, -21.2, 25.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 6.9, "np_ttm": 3.4, "ocf_ttm": 0.7, "fcf_ttm": -1.2, "fcf_yield": -0.6, "ocf_yield": 0.4, "gm_median": 11.9, "gm_std": 17.5, "gm_stab": -0.47, "gm_chg_2022": -36.5, "npm_median": -2.5, "roe_median": 1.0, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 46.1, "fix_assets": 7.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 21.26, "capex_dep": 2.69, "interest_debt": 3.4, "debt_ebitda": 1.1, "debt_ratio": 38.3, "debt_mv": 1.8, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 23.9, "np_cagr3": -14.4, "rev_yoy": 85.1, "np_yoy": 407.4, "np_vol": 864.3, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 91.0, "earn_yield": 1.8, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["黄金销售", 99.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 229.0, "ret_prev2_year": -3.9, "ret_ytd": 58.0, "ret_pivot": 1451.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 13.8, "ret_60": 65.4, "ret_120": 13.8, "ret_250": 114.6, "mdd_250": -60.9, "vol_250": 72.6, "pos_52w": 72.4}, "S": {"duration": 75, "pricing": 70, "hard": 74, "bondness": 3}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["商品定价", "近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 3.4 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 56 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 38%,有息负债 3 亿,经营现金流/市值 0.4%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 46%、毛利率 11.9% 两条都占,但所在行业(有色金属)不在硬资产名单里(医药/科技的固定资产是产能不是储量),按主标签看。 注意:金矿股不等于黄金,有运营杠杆和自身成本通胀,对冲美元信用直接买黄金 ETF 更纯。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.6%(经营现金流/市值 0.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 11.9%,稳定度 -47%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -36.5 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 46%,资本开支/折旧 2.69 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 56.2 倍 粗算,约 91%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 115%,最大回撤 -61%,年化波动 73%,现价在 52 周高点的 72%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 14% / 65% / 14%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「贵金属」11 家中位:PE 30.8 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 13.3% / 固定资产占比 27% / 分红率 32%。", "招金黄金:PE 比行业中位高 25.4倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 1.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 19.4个百分点。"]}}