{"F": {"ts_code": "000498.SZ", "name": "山东路桥", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "建筑装饰", "sw2": "基础建设", "sw3": "基建市政工程", "ind": "基础建设", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19970609", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.97, "pe_ttm": 3.9985, "pb": 0.428, "dv_ttm": 4.4404, "total_mv": 771563.674, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [10.4, 11.8, 12.2, 12.9, 13.2, 14.4], "rev_series": [344.4, 575.2, 650.2, 730.2, 713.5, 685.7], "np_series": [13.4, 21.3, 25.0, 22.9, 23.2, 22.3], "roe_series": [18.9, 19.3, 17.1, 11.9, 9.9, 8.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 653.5, "np_ttm": 19.3, "ocf_ttm": -9.7, "fcf_ttm": -21.0, "fcf_yield": -27.3, "ocf_yield": -12.6, "gm_median": 12.9, "gm_std": 0.9, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": 1.8, "npm_median": 4.8, "roe_median": 11.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 2.5, "fix_assets": 45.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.2, "pb_calc": 0.27, "capex_dep": 2.14, "interest_debt": 400.1, "debt_ebitda": 6.0, "debt_ratio": 76.3, "debt_mv": 518.6, "payout": 16.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 1.8, "np_cagr3": -3.8, "rev_yoy": -11.3, "np_yoy": -28.9, "np_vol": 26.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 0.0, "earn_yield": 25.0, "consensus_n": 8, "fwd_pe": 3.7, "fwd_pe2": 3.6, "fwd_g1": 9.0, "fwd_g2": 3.0, "peg": 1.23, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["路桥工程施工", 43.0], ["路桥养护施工", 4.0], ["周转材料租赁", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 5.1, "ret_prev2_year": 10.3, "ret_ytd": -14.9, "ret_pivot": 9.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.4, "ret_60": 2.8, "ret_120": -18.4, "ret_250": -15.2, "mdd_250": -27.8, "vol_250": 20.5, "pos_52w": 79.0}, "S": {"duration": 10, "pricing": 48, "hard": 4, "bondness": 66}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 4.0 倍、股息率 4.4%、毛利率近 5 年中位 12.9%、固定资产占比 2%、有息负债/EBITDA 6.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 2%,毛利率近 5 年中位 12.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -27.3%(经营现金流/市值 -12.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 12.9%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 2%,资本开支/折旧 2.14 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 4.0 倍 粗算,约 0%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -15%,最大回撤 -28%,年化波动 20%,现价在 52 周高点的 79%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 0% / 3% / -18%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「基础建设」40 家中位:PE 11.7 / 股息率 2.3% / 毛利率 12.4% / 固定资产占比 3% / 分红率 28%。", "山东路桥:PE 比行业中位低 7.7倍;股息率 比行业中位高 2.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 0.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.5个百分点。"]}}