{"F": {"ts_code": "000488.SZ", "name": "ST晨鸣", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "造纸", "sw3": "大宗用纸", "ind": "造纸", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20001120", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 1.91, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 36.0589, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 561818.1533, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [23.1, 23.6, 14.5, 8.1, 2.6, -39.0], "rev_series": [307.4, 330.2, 320.0, 266.1, 227.3, 61.9], "np_series": [17.1, 20.7, 1.9, -12.8, -74.1, -83.0], "roe_series": [6.9, 9.5, 1.0, -7.2, -57.3, -164.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 109.5, "np_ttm": -52.2, "ocf_ttm": -2.2, "fcf_ttm": -2.7, "fcf_yield": -4.7, "ocf_yield": -3.9, "gm_median": 8.1, "gm_std": 21.7, "gm_stab": -1.67, "gm_chg_2022": -8.6, "npm_median": -5.0, "roe_median": -7.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 56.4, "fix_assets": 287.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 36.06, "capex_dep": 0.02, "interest_debt": 293.7, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 96.1, "debt_mv": 522.8, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -42.2, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 225.9, "np_yoy": 79.6, "np_vol": 311.0, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 46.0], ["铜版纸", 10.0], ["双胶纸", 10.0], ["静电纸", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": -27.9, "ret_prev2_year": -21.4, "ret_ytd": -13.2, "ret_pivot": -43.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.1, "ret_60": -10.7, "ret_120": -30.8, "ret_250": -18.0, "mdd_250": -39.3, "vol_250": 31.9, "pos_52w": 62.6}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 8, "hard": 90, "bondness": 23}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 56%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 8.1%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.6 个百分点;资产负债率 96%,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 56%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 8.1%,稳定度 -167%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -4.7%(经营现金流/市值 -3.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 8.1%,稳定度 -167%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 56%,资本开支/折旧 0.02 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -18%,最大回撤 -39%,年化波动 32%,现价在 52 周高点的 63%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / -11% / -31%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「造纸」25 家中位:PE 21.5 / 股息率 1.2% / 毛利率 13.1% / 固定资产占比 50% / 分红率 33%。", "ST晨鸣:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 5.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 6.5个百分点。"]}}