{"F": {"ts_code": "000430.SZ", "name": "张家界", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "社会服务", "sw2": "旅游及景区", "sw3": "自然景区", "ind": "旅游及景区", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19960829", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.65, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 3.4033, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 619371.081, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [-12.6, -22.0, -100.4, 10.8, 14.6, 17.3], "rev_series": [1.7, 2.0, 1.3, 4.2, 4.3, 4.6], "np_series": [-0.9, -1.4, -2.6, -2.4, -5.8, -5.5], "roe_series": [-5.9, -9.4, -21.0, -24.2, -100.5, -68.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.8, "np_ttm": -2.1, "ocf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_ttm": -1.2, "fcf_yield": -1.9, "ocf_yield": 0.8, "gm_median": 10.8, "gm_std": 44.6, "gm_stab": -3.13, "gm_chg_2022": -87.8, "npm_median": -119.8, "roe_median": -24.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 29.2, "fix_assets": 7.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.4, "capex_dep": 2.29, "interest_debt": 2.8, "debt_ebitda": 2.7, "debt_ratio": 26.9, "debt_mv": 4.4, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 51.3, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 9.3, "np_yoy": 1026.8, "np_vol": 58.1, "loss_years": 5, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["环保客运", 34.0], ["旅行社", 23.0], ["杨家界索道", 15.0], ["宝峰湖景区", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 150.3, "ret_prev2_year": -4.8, "ret_ytd": -1.4, "ret_pivot": 180.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 18.4, "ret_60": 0.9, "ret_120": 2.4, "ret_250": 102.1, "mdd_250": -29.9, "vol_250": 89.2, "pos_52w": 91.6}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 9, "hard": 47, "bondness": 8}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -2.1 亿,近 5 年亏损 5 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 27%,有息负债 3 亿,经营现金流/市值 0.8%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 29%,毛利率近 5 年中位 10.8%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.9%(经营现金流/市值 0.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 10.8%,稳定度 -313%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -87.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 29%,资本开支/折旧 2.29 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 102%,最大回撤 -30%,年化波动 89%,现价在 52 周高点的 92%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 18% / 1% / 2%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「旅游及景区」25 家中位:PE 66.7 / 股息率 2.0% / 毛利率 32.9% / 固定资产占比 35% / 分红率 44%。", "张家界:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 22.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 5.6个百分点。"]}}