{"F": {"ts_code": "000429.SZ", "name": "粤高速A", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "铁路公路", "sw3": "高速公路", "ind": "铁路公路", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19980220", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 13.04, "pe_ttm": 17.1008, "pb": 2.577, "dv_ttm": 4.6319, "total_mv": 2726411.1544, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [56.1, 63.5, 61.9, 64.3, 64.3, 64.5], "rev_series": [37.9, 52.9, 41.7, 48.8, 45.7, 44.7], "np_series": [8.7, 17.0, 12.8, 16.3, 15.6, 18.0], "roe_series": [9.8, 20.1, 14.1, 17.3, 15.4, 16.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 44.7, "np_ttm": 15.9, "ocf_ttm": 33.7, "fcf_ttm": -2.1, "fcf_yield": -0.8, "ocf_yield": 12.4, "gm_median": 64.3, "gm_std": 1.0, "gm_stab": 0.99, "gm_chg_2022": 5.8, "npm_median": 46.0, "roe_median": 16.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 46.9, "fix_assets": 133.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.58, "capex_dep": 3.57, "interest_debt": 110.0, "debt_ebitda": 3.0, "debt_ratio": 50.5, "debt_mv": 40.3, "payout": 70.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 2.4, "np_cagr3": 12.1, "rev_yoy": 0.0, "np_yoy": -19.6, "np_vol": 41.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 71.0, "earn_yield": 5.8, "consensus_n": 6, "fwd_pe": 17.2, "fwd_pe2": 17.0, "fwd_g1": -1.0, "fwd_g2": 2.0, "peg": 8.6, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["公路运输", 49.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": -17.7, "ret_prev2_year": 100.0, "ret_ytd": 16.7, "ret_pivot": 35.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -8.1, "ret_60": 2.7, "ret_120": 9.2, "ret_250": 13.0, "mdd_250": -12.4, "vol_250": 23.9, "pos_52w": 90.2}, "S": {"duration": 35, "pricing": 78, "hard": 75, "bondness": 79}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 70%、股息率 4.6%、营收 3 年复合 2.4%、有息负债/EBITDA 3.0 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 47%、毛利率 64.3% 看起来两条都占,但价格受管制(铁路公路:电价/通行费/港口费由主管部门或市场化机制定),高毛利来自成本结构不是提价能力。通胀来了它不能提价,利润跟不上通胀,所以不算。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.8%(经营现金流/市值 12.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 64.3%,稳定度 99%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 5.8 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 47%,资本开支/折旧 3.57 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 17.1 倍 粗算,约 71%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 13%,最大回撤 -12%,年化波动 24%,现价在 52 周高点的 90%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -8% / 3% / 9%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「铁路公路」33 家中位:PE 15.4 / 股息率 3.2% / 毛利率 32.2% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 48%。", "粤高速A:PE 比行业中位高 1.7倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 32.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 25.9个百分点。"]}}