{"F": {"ts_code": "000426.SZ", "name": "兴业银锡", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "工业金属", "sw3": "铅锌", "ind": "工业金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19960828", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 38.44, "pe_ttm": 21.5207, "pb": 5.9152, "dv_ttm": 0.2862, "total_mv": 6825544.0152, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [48.8, 49.2, 44.5, 52.9, 63.0, 57.6], "rev_series": [9.4, 20.1, 20.9, 37.1, 42.7, 55.6], "np_series": [-1.8, 2.5, 1.7, 9.7, 15.3, 17.0], "roe_series": [-3.5, 4.7, 3.2, 16.1, 21.3, 19.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 73.6, "np_ttm": 31.7, "ocf_ttm": 29.6, "fcf_ttm": 21.8, "fcf_yield": 3.2, "ocf_yield": 4.3, "gm_median": 52.9, "gm_std": 6.4, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": -4.4, "npm_median": 25.7, "roe_median": 16.1, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 28.2, "fix_assets": 55.8, "goodwill_ratio": 1.0, "pb_calc": 5.92, "capex_dep": 2.22, "interest_debt": 44.3, "debt_ebitda": 1.0, "debt_ratio": 38.0, "debt_mv": 6.5, "payout": 11.5, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 38.6, "np_cagr3": 114.0, "rev_yoy": 73.1, "np_yoy": 184.4, "np_vol": 179.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 77.0, "earn_yield": 4.6, "consensus_n": 9, "fwd_pe": 17.5, "fwd_pe2": 15.7, "fwd_g1": 23.0, "fwd_g2": 12.0, "peg": 1.46, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["矿产银", 29.0], ["矿产锡", 9.0], ["矿产锌", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 224.4, "ret_prev2_year": 23.8, "ret_ytd": 8.3, "ret_pivot": 279.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.4, "ret_60": 7.0, "ret_120": -17.8, "ret_250": 88.0, "mdd_250": -61.0, "vol_250": 71.5, "pos_52w": 56.0}, "S": {"duration": 42, "pricing": 70, "hard": 45, "bondness": 9}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["商品定价", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 21.5 倍、股息率 0.3%、毛利率近 5 年中位 52.9%、固定资产占比 28%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 52.9%),硬资产占比 28%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.2%(经营现金流/市值 4.3%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 52.9%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 28%,资本开支/折旧 2.22 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 21.5 倍 粗算,约 77%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 88%,最大回撤 -61%,年化波动 72%,现价在 52 周高点的 56%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / 7% / -18%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「工业金属」60 家中位:PE 20.5 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 10.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 32%。", "兴业银锡:PE 比行业中位高 1.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 42.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.7个百分点。"]}}