{"F": {"ts_code": "000422.SZ", "name": "湖北宜化", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "农化制品", "sw3": "氮肥", "ind": "农化制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19960815", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 12.44, "pe_ttm": 18.558, "pb": 2.208, "dv_ttm": 2.0096, "total_mv": 1352955.3668, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [10.7, 24.6, 19.1, 12.7, 13.7, 18.1], "rev_series": [138.0, 185.4, 207.1, 170.5, 169.6, 256.5], "np_series": [1.3, 15.7, 21.6, 4.5, 6.5, 8.1], "roe_series": [56.1, 114.8, 61.1, 8.0, 9.4, 11.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 270.4, "np_ttm": 7.3, "ocf_ttm": 38.8, "fcf_ttm": -6.1, "fcf_yield": -4.5, "ocf_yield": 28.7, "gm_median": 18.1, "gm_std": 4.3, "gm_stab": 0.76, "gm_chg_2022": 8.4, "npm_median": 5.6, "roe_median": 11.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 58.4, "fix_assets": 276.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.75, "capex_dep": 1.84, "interest_debt": 219.6, "debt_ebitda": 4.8, "debt_ratio": 68.9, "debt_mv": 162.3, "payout": 33.5, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 7.4, "np_cagr3": -28.0, "rev_yoy": 11.6, "np_yoy": -19.9, "np_vol": 506.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 73.0, "earn_yield": 5.4, "consensus_n": 8, "fwd_pe": 15.3, "fwd_pe2": 12.3, "fwd_g1": 21.0, "fwd_g2": 24.0, "peg": 0.64, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["磷复肥", 32.0], ["聚氯乙烯", 14.0], ["尿素", 11.0], ["其他主营业务", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 14.7, "ret_prev2_year": 25.6, "ret_ytd": -10.9, "ret_pivot": 13.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -5.8, "ret_60": -9.9, "ret_120": -35.0, "ret_250": -9.6, "mdd_250": -36.2, "vol_250": 46.4, "pos_52w": 64.8}, "S": {"duration": 37, "pricing": 47, "hard": 93, "bondness": 51}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 58%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 18.1%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 8.4 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 4.8 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 58%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 18.1%,稳定度 76%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -4.5%(经营现金流/市值 28.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 18.1%,稳定度 76%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 8.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 58%,资本开支/折旧 1.84 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 18.6 倍 粗算,约 73%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -10%,最大回撤 -36%,年化波动 46%,现价在 52 周高点的 65%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -6% / -10% / -35%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「农化制品」62 家中位:PE 20.8 / 股息率 2.0% / 毛利率 19.9% / 固定资产占比 36% / 分红率 45%。", "湖北宜化:PE 比行业中位低 2.2倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位低 1.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 22.8个百分点。"]}}