{"F": {"ts_code": "000421.SZ", "name": "南京公用", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "综合", "sw2": "综合Ⅱ", "sw3": "综合Ⅲ", "ind": "综合Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19960806", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.82, "pe_ttm": 33.6881, "pb": 1.2001, "dv_ttm": 1.0309, "total_mv": 334309.9374, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [27.0, 20.6, 12.3, 14.7, 13.6, 15.0], "rev_series": [68.4, 35.9, 71.1, 46.3, 65.7, 69.8], "np_series": [2.3, 1.0, 0.6, -0.9, 0.5, 0.5], "roe_series": [8.3, 3.5, 2.1, -3.2, 1.7, 1.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 77.9, "np_ttm": 1.0, "ocf_ttm": 3.1, "fcf_ttm": -1.4, "fcf_yield": -4.1, "ocf_yield": 9.3, "gm_median": 14.7, "gm_std": 2.9, "gm_stab": 0.81, "gm_chg_2022": -14.7, "npm_median": 1.3, "roe_median": 1.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 51.4, "fix_assets": 41.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.2, "capex_dep": 1.86, "interest_debt": 18.9, "debt_ebitda": 2.7, "debt_ratio": 51.7, "debt_mv": 56.5, "payout": 73.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -0.6, "np_cagr3": -7.4, "rev_yoy": 28.3, "np_yoy": 163.5, "np_vol": 128.4, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 85.0, "earn_yield": 3.0, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["房产开发", 41.0], ["燃气销售", 40.0], ["其他业务", 5.0], ["其他", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 7.7, "ret_prev2_year": -6.1, "ret_ytd": -15.0, "ret_pivot": 29.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 9.2, "ret_60": 7.4, "ret_120": -16.3, "ret_250": -12.5, "mdd_250": -37.5, "vol_250": 32.8, "pos_52w": 73.3}, "S": {"duration": 57, "pricing": 39, "hard": 82, "bondness": 60}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 51%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 14.7%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -14.7 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 2.7 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 51%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 14.7%,稳定度 81%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -4.1%(经营现金流/市值 9.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 14.7%,稳定度 81%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -14.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 51%,资本开支/折旧 1.86 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 33.7 倍 粗算,约 85%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -12%,最大回撤 -38%,年化波动 33%,现价在 52 周高点的 73%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 9% / 7% / -16%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「综合Ⅱ」20 家中位:PE 46.7 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 15.5% / 固定资产占比 12% / 分红率 35%。", "南京公用:PE 比行业中位低 13.0倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 39.0个百分点。"]}}