{"F": {"ts_code": "000419.SZ", "name": "通程控股", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "商贸零售", "sw2": "一般零售", "sw3": "多业态零售", "ind": "一般零售", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19960816", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.14, "pe_ttm": 24.6677, "pb": 0.8272, "dv_ttm": 2.5292, "total_mv": 279401.5078, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [27.1, 25.6, 24.8, 25.6, 22.9, 22.6], "rev_series": [21.4, 21.5, 19.9, 20.0, 19.2, 17.9], "np_series": [1.8, 1.4, 1.5, 1.3, 1.5, 1.2], "roe_series": [6.0, 4.5, 4.8, 4.2, 4.5, 3.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 16.2, "np_ttm": 1.1, "ocf_ttm": 1.1, "fcf_ttm": 1.0, "fcf_yield": 3.7, "ocf_yield": 3.8, "gm_median": 24.8, "gm_std": 1.3, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -2.3, "npm_median": 7.8, "roe_median": 4.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 12.3, "fix_assets": 6.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.83, "capex_dep": 0.1, "interest_debt": 7.1, "debt_ebitda": 3.0, "debt_ratio": 31.4, "debt_mv": 25.5, "payout": 54.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -3.4, "np_cagr3": -5.5, "rev_yoy": -17.3, "np_yoy": -11.6, "np_vol": 14.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 80.0, "earn_yield": 4.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["商业零售", 73.0], ["合计特别调整", 7.0], ["其他业务", 7.0], ["酒店经营", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 15.3, "ret_prev2_year": 4.0, "ret_ytd": -17.9, "ret_pivot": 25.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 8.9, "ret_60": 8.4, "ret_120": -15.6, "ret_250": -12.4, "mdd_250": -36.7, "vol_250": 30.2, "pos_52w": 74.3}, "S": {"duration": 46, "pricing": 51, "hard": 20, "bondness": 63}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 24.7 倍、股息率 2.5%、毛利率近 5 年中位 24.8%、固定资产占比 12%、有息负债/EBITDA 3.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 12%,毛利率近 5 年中位 24.8%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.7%(经营现金流/市值 3.8%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 24.8%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 12%,资本开支/折旧 0.10 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 24.7 倍 粗算,约 80%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -12%,最大回撤 -37%,年化波动 30%,现价在 52 周高点的 74%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 9% / 8% / -16%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「一般零售」60 家中位:PE 60.7 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 34.2% / 固定资产占比 15% / 分红率 51%。", "通程控股:PE 比行业中位低 36.0倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 9.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 3.1个百分点。"]}}