{"F": {"ts_code": "000415.SZ", "name": "渤海租赁", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "非银金融", "sw2": "多元金融", "sw3": "租赁", "ind": "多元金融", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19960716", "is_fin": true, "roles": {"fin": true, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.56, "pe_ttm": 5.8541, "pb": 0.9037, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 2820141.7128, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [34.8, 38.7, 37.5, 43.5, 40.7, 30.3], "rev_series": [274.2, 267.9, 319.2, 336.7, 384.3, 529.2], "np_series": [-77.0, -12.3, -19.9, 12.8, 9.0, -4.1], "roe_series": [-23.7, -4.7, -7.5, 4.5, 3.0, -1.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 481.3, "np_ttm": 48.2, "ocf_ttm": 208.3, "fcf_ttm": -35.6, "fcf_yield": -12.6, "ocf_yield": 73.9, "gm_median": 38.7, "gm_std": 4.4, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": 2.8, "npm_median": 1.9, "roe_median": -1.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 72.0, "fix_assets": 1735.8, "goodwill_ratio": 1.4, "pb_calc": 0.9, "capex_dep": 3.1, "interest_debt": 1697.8, "debt_ebitda": 7.8, "debt_ratio": 80.2, "debt_mv": 602.0, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 18.4, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -16.9, "np_yoy": 258.7, "np_vol": 109.3, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 15.0, "earn_yield": 17.1, "consensus_n": 9, "fwd_pe": 6.1, "fwd_pe2": 6.6, "fwd_g1": -4.0, "fwd_g2": -7.0, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["飞机销售", 54.0], ["经营租赁", 44.0], ["融资租赁和融资租赁咨询", 1.0], ["其他业务收入", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 7.4, "ret_prev2_year": 76.2, "ret_ytd": 12.6, "ret_pivot": 102.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.9, "ret_60": 16.0, "ret_120": -1.3, "ret_250": 22.9, "mdd_250": -31.5, "vol_250": 39.9, "pos_52w": 84.6}, "S": {"duration": 14, "pricing": null, "hard": null, "bondness": 17}, "label": "金融·利差生意", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["渤海租赁 是多元金融。银行赚的是利差,券商保险赚的是资产端与费率,毛利率与固定资产两个轴对它没有意义。", "ROE 近 5 年中位 -1.3%,PB 0.90倍,股息率 —,分红率 —。", "利率上行对银行是净息差扩张(少数受益方向);对保险是资产端浮亏、对券商是交投与融资成本。"], "加息期怎么走": "按笔记:日债/美债收益率上行期,银行股是例外的受益方向;红利型大行按'现金流红利'拿,盯息差而不盯黄金。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "金融业现金流表不适用;用盈利收益率 17.1%(1/PE)与股息率 — 看。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 5.9 倍 粗算,约 15%(1 − 5/PE)。<40%,估值靠当期。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 23%,最大回撤 -32%,年化波动 40%,现价在 52 周高点的 85%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / 16% / -1%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「多元金融」24 家中位:PE 20.1 / 股息率 1.4% / 毛利率 28.6% / 固定资产占比 1% / 分红率 31%。", "渤海租赁:PE 比行业中位低 14.2倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 10.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 71.3个百分点。"]}}