{"F": {"ts_code": "000408.SZ", "name": "藏格矿业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "农化制品", "sw3": "钾肥", "ind": "农化制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19960628", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 75.62, "pe_ttm": 20.85, "pb": 6.8991, "dv_ttm": 3.2985, "total_mv": 11864133.7176, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [32.3, 58.8, 82.0, 65.2, 44.9, 59.2], "rev_series": [19.0, 36.2, 81.9, 52.3, 32.5, 35.8], "np_series": [2.3, 14.3, 56.5, 34.2, 25.8, 38.5], "roe_series": [2.9, 16.4, 52.4, 27.2, 19.2, 25.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 39.6, "np_ttm": 56.9, "ocf_ttm": 22.5, "fcf_ttm": 21.1, "fcf_yield": 1.8, "ocf_yield": 1.9, "gm_median": 59.2, "gm_std": 12.0, "gm_stab": 0.8, "gm_chg_2022": 49.7, "npm_median": 69.0, "roe_median": 25.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 11.7, "fix_assets": 21.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 6.9, "capex_dep": 0.39, "interest_debt": 2.3, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 7.8, "debt_mv": 0.2, "payout": 73.4, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -24.1, "np_cagr3": -12.0, "rev_yoy": 23.0, "np_yoy": 102.1, "np_vol": 217.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 76.0, "earn_yield": 4.8, "consensus_n": 14, "fwd_pe": 14.6, "fwd_pe2": 11.9, "fwd_g1": 43.0, "fwd_g2": 22.0, "peg": 0.66, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["氯化钾", 71.0], ["碳酸锂", 28.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 238.0, "ret_prev2_year": 16.6, "ret_ytd": -7.7, "ret_pivot": 270.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -15.0, "ret_60": 0.8, "ret_120": -2.1, "ret_250": 60.1, "mdd_250": -28.2, "vol_250": 47.2, "pos_52w": 81.9}, "S": {"duration": 41, "pricing": 69, "hard": 19, "bondness": 66}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["现金流红利", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 102%,PE TTM 20.9 倍 但前瞻 PE 14.6 倍,PEG 0.66。", "自由现金流 21.1 亿(正),次年预期增速 22%(14 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 12%,毛利率近 5 年中位 59.2%。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.8%(经营现金流/市值 1.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 59.2%,稳定度 80%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 49.7 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 12%,资本开支/折旧 0.39 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 20.9 倍 粗算,约 76%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 60%,最大回撤 -28%,年化波动 47%,现价在 52 周高点的 82%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -15% / 1% / -2%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「农化制品」62 家中位:PE 20.8 / 股息率 2.0% / 毛利率 19.9% / 固定资产占比 36% / 分红率 45%。", "藏格矿业:PE 比行业中位高 0.1倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 39.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 23.9个百分点。"]}}