{"F": {"ts_code": "000403.SZ", "name": "派林生物", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "生物制品", "sw3": "血液制品", "ind": "生物制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19960628", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 10.35, "pe_ttm": 36.7347, "pb": 1.221, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 983661.309, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [48.8, 46.1, 52.1, 51.5, 49.1, 41.5], "rev_series": [10.5, 19.7, 24.1, 23.3, 26.5, 26.3], "np_series": [1.9, 3.9, 5.9, 6.1, 7.5, 4.2], "roe_series": [21.1, 10.7, 8.9, 8.6, 9.7, 5.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 24.8, "np_ttm": 2.7, "ocf_ttm": -1.1, "fcf_ttm": -3.3, "fcf_yield": -3.4, "ocf_yield": -1.1, "gm_median": 49.1, "gm_std": 3.9, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": 3.3, "npm_median": 24.4, "roe_median": 8.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 20.6, "fix_assets": 20.1, "goodwill_ratio": 25.9, "pb_calc": 1.22, "capex_dep": 1.75, "interest_debt": 12.1, "debt_ebitda": 2.1, "debt_ratio": 17.7, "debt_mv": 12.3, "payout": 43.8, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 3.1, "np_cagr3": -10.6, "rev_yoy": -15.9, "np_yoy": -64.2, "np_vol": 51.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 86.0, "earn_yield": 2.7, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 23.0, "fwd_pe2": 21.3, "fwd_g1": 60.0, "fwd_g2": 8.0, "peg": 2.88, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["血液制品", 99.0], ["其他主营业务", 1.0], ["其他", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": -14.4, "ret_prev2_year": -21.7, "ret_ytd": -24.4, "ret_pivot": -31.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.4, "ret_60": -11.2, "ret_120": -27.4, "ret_250": -43.2, "mdd_250": -52.2, "vol_250": 32.9, "pos_52w": 56.2}, "S": {"duration": 60, "pricing": 67, "hard": 33, "bondness": 39}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["商誉占比高"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 36.7 倍、股息率 —、毛利率近 5 年中位 49.1%、固定资产占比 21%、有息负债/EBITDA 2.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 49.1%),硬资产占比 21%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.4%(经营现金流/市值 -1.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 49.1%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 3.3 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 21%,资本开支/折旧 1.75 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 36.7 倍 粗算,约 86%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -43%,最大回撤 -52%,年化波动 33%,现价在 52 周高点的 56%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / -11% / -27%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「生物制品」55 家中位:PE 32.1 / 股息率 1.2% / 毛利率 75.7% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 40%。", "派林生物:PE 比行业中位高 4.6倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 26.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.5个百分点。"]}}