{"F": {"ts_code": "000401.SZ", "name": "金隅冀东", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "建筑材料", "sw2": "水泥", "sw3": "水泥制造", "ind": "水泥", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19960614", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.6, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 0.3683, "dv_ttm": 2.7799, "total_mv": 956212.92, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [35.0, 26.9, 20.5, 11.8, 18.1, 22.1], "rev_series": [354.8, 363.4, 345.4, 282.4, 252.9, 245.0], "np_series": [28.5, 28.1, 13.6, -15.0, -9.9, 2.2], "roe_series": [17.2, 11.3, 4.3, -5.0, -3.5, 0.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 223.8, "np_ttm": -5.9, "ocf_ttm": 23.9, "fcf_ttm": 6.9, "fcf_yield": 7.2, "ocf_yield": 25.0, "gm_median": 20.5, "gm_std": 5.0, "gm_stab": 0.76, "gm_chg_2022": -14.5, "npm_median": 0.5, "roe_median": 0.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 52.7, "fix_assets": 300.2, "goodwill_ratio": 1.0, "pb_calc": 0.36, "capex_dep": 0.65, "interest_debt": 203.2, "debt_ebitda": 5.4, "debt_ratio": 50.5, "debt_mv": 212.5, "payout": 122.0, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -10.8, "np_cagr3": -45.6, "rev_yoy": -18.0, "np_yoy": -523.2, "np_vol": 110.1, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": 72.0, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 46.0], ["水泥", 32.0], ["其他主营业务", 6.0], ["其他", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": -14.3, "ret_prev2_year": -18.7, "ret_ytd": -16.5, "ret_pivot": -15.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.6, "ret_60": -5.3, "ret_120": -28.9, "ret_250": -28.7, "mdd_250": -35.8, "vol_250": 23.7, "pos_52w": 69.2}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 41, "hard": 84, "bondness": 87}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -5.9 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 50%,有息负债 203 亿,经营现金流/市值 25.0%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 53%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 20.5%,稳定度 76%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 7.2%(经营现金流/市值 25.0%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 20.5%,稳定度 76%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -14.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 53%,资本开支/折旧 0.65 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -29%,最大回撤 -36%,年化波动 24%,现价在 52 周高点的 69%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / -5% / -29%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「水泥」21 家中位:PE 19.9 / 股息率 2.8% / 毛利率 17.5% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 50%。", "金隅冀东:PE ;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位高 3.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 20.9个百分点。"]}}