{"F": {"ts_code": "000400.SZ", "name": "许继电气", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电网设备", "sw3": "电网自动化设备", "ind": "电网设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19970418", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 21.92, "pe_ttm": 23.5239, "pb": 1.8061, "dv_ttm": 2.094, "total_mv": 2232819.8624, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [20.2, 20.6, 19.0, 18.0, 20.8, 23.4], "rev_series": [111.9, 119.9, 149.2, 170.6, 170.9, 149.9], "np_series": [7.2, 7.2, 7.6, 10.1, 11.2, 11.7], "roe_series": [8.5, 8.0, 7.8, 9.7, 10.2, 10.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 150.7, "np_ttm": 9.5, "ocf_ttm": 12.4, "fcf_ttm": 9.9, "fcf_yield": 4.4, "ocf_yield": 5.6, "gm_median": 20.6, "gm_std": 1.8, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": -1.1, "npm_median": 7.1, "roe_median": 9.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 8.2, "fix_assets": 21.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.81, "capex_dep": 1.24, "interest_debt": 4.5, "debt_ebitda": 0.3, "debt_ratio": 48.4, "debt_mv": 2.0, "payout": 38.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 0.2, "np_cagr3": 15.4, "rev_yoy": 1.2, "np_yoy": -34.4, "np_vol": 9.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 79.0, "earn_yield": 4.3, "consensus_n": 17, "fwd_pe": 17.1, "fwd_pe2": 13.8, "fwd_g1": 38.0, "fwd_g2": 24.0, "peg": 0.71, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["智能变配电系统", 29.0], ["智能电表", 26.0], ["智能中压供用电设备", 21.0], ["充换电设备及其它制造服务", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": -5.0, "ret_prev2_year": 29.1, "ret_ytd": -14.0, "ret_pivot": -25.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -3.7, "ret_60": 2.5, "ret_120": -28.8, "ret_250": -5.5, "mdd_250": -41.7, "vol_250": 39.1, "pos_52w": 65.0}, "S": {"duration": 44, "pricing": 49, "hard": 13, "bondness": 47}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 23.5 倍、股息率 2.1%、毛利率近 5 年中位 20.6%、固定资产占比 8%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.3 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 8%,毛利率近 5 年中位 20.6%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.4%(经营现金流/市值 5.6%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 20.6%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 8%,资本开支/折旧 1.24 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 23.5 倍 粗算,约 79%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -6%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 39%,现价在 52 周高点的 65%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -4% / 2% / -29%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电网设备」141 家中位:PE 43.5 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 23.5% / 固定资产占比 15% / 分红率 40%。", "许继电气:PE 比行业中位低 20.0倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 6.7个百分点。"]}}