{"F": {"ts_code": "000338.SZ", "name": "潍柴动力", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "底盘与发动机系统", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20070430", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 26.85, "pe_ttm": 17.8614, "pb": 2.414, "dv_ttm": 2.7309, "total_mv": 23198992.311, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [19.3, 19.5, 17.8, 21.1, 22.4, 21.5], "rev_series": [1974.9, 2035.5, 1751.6, 2139.6, 2156.9, 2318.1], "np_series": [92.1, 92.5, 49.1, 90.1, 114.0, 109.3], "roe_series": [19.1, 15.2, 6.8, 11.8, 13.7, 12.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 2418.2, "np_ttm": 129.9, "ocf_ttm": 331.9, "fcf_ttm": 273.8, "fcf_yield": 11.8, "ocf_yield": 14.3, "gm_median": 21.1, "gm_std": 1.6, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -1.5, "npm_median": 5.7, "roe_median": 12.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 15.0, "fix_assets": 570.1, "goodwill_ratio": 6.4, "pb_calc": 2.41, "capex_dep": 0.51, "interest_debt": 384.6, "debt_ebitda": 1.2, "debt_ratio": 64.5, "debt_mv": 16.6, "payout": 54.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 9.8, "np_cagr3": 30.6, "rev_yoy": 8.8, "np_yoy": 36.5, "np_vol": 43.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 72.0, "earn_yield": 5.6, "consensus_n": 19, "fwd_pe": 16.0, "fwd_pe2": 12.9, "fwd_g1": 11.0, "fwd_g2": 24.0, "peg": 0.67, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 39.0], ["动力总成、整车整机及关键零部件", 16.0], ["动力总成、整车及关键零部件", 16.0], ["智慧物流", 15.0]], "ret_prev_year": 33.3, "ret_prev2_year": 6.0, "ret_ytd": 59.6, "ret_pivot": 140.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -9.8, "ret_60": -1.3, "ret_120": 9.6, "ret_250": 78.5, "mdd_250": -31.6, "vol_250": 53.2, "pos_52w": 76.8}, "S": {"duration": 36, "pricing": 49, "hard": 24, "bondness": 49}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 36%,PE TTM 17.9 倍 但前瞻 PE 16.0 倍,PEG 0.67。", "自由现金流 273.8 亿(正),次年预期增速 24%(19 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 15%,毛利率近 5 年中位 21.1%。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 11.8%(经营现金流/市值 14.3%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 21.1%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 15%,资本开支/折旧 0.51 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 17.9 倍 粗算,约 72%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 78%,最大回撤 -32%,年化波动 53%,现价在 52 周高点的 77%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -10% / -1% / 10%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "潍柴动力:PE 比行业中位低 12.3倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 10.5个百分点。"]}}