{"F": {"ts_code": "000301.SZ", "name": "东方盛虹", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "石油石化", "sw2": "炼化及贸易", "sw3": "炼油化工", "ind": "炼化及贸易", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20000529", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.62, "pe_ttm": 22.7552, "pb": 2.5516, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 9665621.8711, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [6.0, 16.7, 7.7, 11.3, 8.4, 10.8], "rev_series": [227.8, 517.2, 638.2, 1404.4, 1376.7, 1255.9], "np_series": [3.2, 45.4, 5.5, 7.2, -23.0, 1.3], "roe_series": [2.0, 20.1, 1.7, 2.0, -6.6, 0.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 1346.0, "np_ttm": 42.5, "ocf_ttm": 313.8, "fcf_ttm": 232.7, "fcf_yield": 24.1, "ocf_yield": 32.5, "gm_median": 10.8, "gm_std": 3.2, "gm_stab": 0.71, "gm_chg_2022": 1.7, "npm_median": 0.5, "roe_median": 1.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 72.5, "fix_assets": 1511.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.4, "pb_calc": 2.49, "capex_dep": 1.01, "interest_debt": 1424.2, "debt_ebitda": 8.2, "debt_ratio": 79.4, "debt_mv": 147.3, "payout": 90.9, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 25.3, "np_cagr3": -37.5, "rev_yoy": 14.8, "np_yoy": 1065.1, "np_vol": 295.4, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 78.0, "earn_yield": 4.4, "consensus_n": 8, "fwd_pe": 20.1, "fwd_pe2": 18.5, "fwd_g1": 13.0, "fwd_g2": 9.0, "peg": 2.23, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 38.0], ["其他石化及化工新材料", 23.0], ["其他化工材料", 23.0], ["炼油产品", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 32.6, "ret_prev2_year": -13.6, "ret_ytd": 34.3, "ret_pivot": 104.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 11.6, "ret_60": 25.9, "ret_120": 26.5, "ret_250": 52.1, "mdd_250": -29.9, "vol_250": 43.5, "pos_52w": 99.3}, "S": {"duration": 43, "pricing": 39, "hard": 100, "bondness": 47}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 72%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 10.8%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.7 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 8.2 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 72%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 10.8%,稳定度 71%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 24.1%(经营现金流/市值 32.5%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 10.8%,稳定度 71%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 72%,资本开支/折旧 1.01 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 22.8 倍 粗算,约 78%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 52%,最大回撤 -30%,年化波动 44%,现价在 52 周高点的 99%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 12% / 26% / 26%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「炼化及贸易」30 家中位:PE 24.2 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 10.6% / 固定资产占比 43% / 分红率 49%。", "东方盛虹:PE 比行业中位低 1.4倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 29.4个百分点。"]}}