{"F": {"ts_code": "000158.SZ", "name": "常山北明", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "IT服务Ⅱ", "sw3": "IT服务Ⅲ", "ind": "IT服务Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20000724", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 13.61, "pe_ttm": 1667.909, "pb": 4.1469, "dv_ttm": 0.1984, "total_mv": 2175717.3287, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [9.9, 10.6, 9.5, 11.4, 9.6, 14.0], "rev_series": [98.8, 108.8, 96.6, 90.1, 88.2, 75.4], "np_series": [1.0, 1.3, -2.1, -1.0, -5.9, 0.3], "roe_series": [1.7, 2.2, -3.4, -1.6, -10.6, 0.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 75.1, "np_ttm": 0.1, "ocf_ttm": -1.3, "fcf_ttm": -4.3, "fcf_yield": -2.0, "ocf_yield": -0.6, "gm_median": 10.6, "gm_std": 1.7, "gm_stab": 0.84, "gm_chg_2022": -0.4, "npm_median": -1.4, "roe_median": -1.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 13.2, "fix_assets": 21.3, "goodwill_ratio": 11.6, "pb_calc": 4.15, "capex_dep": 1.12, "interest_debt": 62.3, "debt_ebitda": 8.8, "debt_ratio": 67.2, "debt_mv": 28.7, "payout": 135.0, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": -7.9, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -0.6, "np_yoy": -21.9, "np_vol": 201.5, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100.0, "earn_yield": 0.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 35.0], ["系统集成及行业解决方案服务", 29.0], ["系统集成及行业解决方案", 29.0], ["定制软件及服务", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 1.2, "ret_prev2_year": 134.1, "ret_ytd": -33.2, "ret_pivot": 15.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.4, "ret_60": -8.8, "ret_120": -32.5, "ret_250": -47.7, "mdd_250": -55.3, "vol_250": 41.3, "pos_52w": 50.3}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 42, "hard": 21, "bondness": 71}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.1 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 1668 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 67%,有息负债 62 亿,经营现金流/市值 -0.6%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 13%,毛利率近 5 年中位 10.6%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.0%(经营现金流/市值 -0.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 10.6%,稳定度 84%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 13%,资本开支/折旧 1.12 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 1667.9 倍 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -48%,最大回撤 -55%,年化波动 41%,现价在 52 周高点的 50%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 0% / -9% / -32%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「IT服务Ⅱ」134 家中位:PE 84.0 / 股息率 0.4% / 毛利率 28.1% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 35%。", "常山北明:PE 比行业中位高 1583.9倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 17.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 4.6个百分点。"]}}