{"F": {"ts_code": "000157.SZ", "name": "中联重科", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "工程机械", "sw3": "工程机械整机", "ind": "工程机械", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20001012", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.62, "pe_ttm": 13.6451, "pb": 0.9939, "dv_ttm": 6.0423, "total_mv": 5725330.3024, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [28.6, 23.6, 21.8, 27.5, 28.2, 28.0], "rev_series": [651.1, 671.3, 416.3, 470.7, 454.8, 521.1], "np_series": [72.8, 62.7, 23.1, 35.1, 35.2, 48.6], "roe_series": [17.0, 12.1, 4.1, 6.3, 6.2, 8.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 543.9, "np_ttm": 42.0, "ocf_ttm": 55.4, "fcf_ttm": 23.8, "fcf_yield": 4.2, "ocf_yield": 9.7, "gm_median": 27.5, "gm_std": 2.6, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": -6.8, "npm_median": 8.8, "roe_median": 6.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 15.0, "fix_assets": 216.4, "goodwill_ratio": 1.8, "pb_calc": 0.99, "capex_dep": 3.06, "interest_debt": 376.0, "debt_ebitda": 5.4, "debt_ratio": 58.6, "debt_mv": 65.7, "payout": 73.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 7.8, "np_cagr3": 28.2, "rev_yoy": 9.2, "np_yoy": -24.0, "np_vol": 40.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 63.0, "earn_yield": 7.3, "consensus_n": 28, "fwd_pe": 10.2, "fwd_pe2": 8.5, "fwd_g1": 33.0, "fwd_g2": 21.0, "peg": 0.49, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["起重机械", 14.0], ["混凝土机械", 12.0], ["土方机械", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 26.0, "ret_prev2_year": 18.5, "ret_ytd": -19.6, "ret_pivot": 22.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -8.3, "ret_60": -6.6, "ret_120": -26.1, "ret_250": -8.8, "mdd_250": -32.8, "vol_250": 31.5, "pos_52w": 67.6}, "S": {"duration": 29, "pricing": 49, "hard": 24, "bondness": 83}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "股息率≥4%", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 73%、股息率 6.0%、营收 3 年复合 7.8%、有息负债/EBITDA 5.4 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 15%,毛利率近 5 年中位 27.5%。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.2%(经营现金流/市值 9.7%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 27.5%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 15%,资本开支/折旧 3.06 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 13.6 倍 粗算,约 63%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -9%,最大回撤 -33%,年化波动 32%,现价在 52 周高点的 68%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -8% / -7% / -26%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「工程机械」35 家中位:PE 28.3 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 26.1% / 固定资产占比 17% / 分红率 33%。", "中联重科:PE 比行业中位低 14.7倍;股息率 比行业中位高 5.0个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.2个百分点。"]}}