{"F": {"ts_code": "000155.SZ", "name": "川能动力", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "公用事业", "sw2": "电力", "sw3": "风力发电", "ind": "电力", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20000926", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 12.02, "pe_ttm": 24.5877, "pb": 1.9839, "dv_ttm": 1.4143, "total_mv": 2219094.2966, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [31.2, 33.3, 54.3, 57.4, 50.1, 41.5], "rev_series": [20.0, 44.1, 38.0, 33.1, 30.5, 36.0], "np_series": [1.5, 3.4, 7.1, 8.0, 7.3, 5.0], "roe_series": [4.3, 8.0, 14.0, 12.5, 8.2, 4.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 54.5, "np_ttm": 9.0, "ocf_ttm": 22.3, "fcf_ttm": 2.3, "fcf_yield": 1.0, "ocf_yield": 10.0, "gm_median": 50.1, "gm_std": 8.8, "gm_stab": 0.82, "gm_chg_2022": 23.1, "npm_median": 23.8, "roe_median": 8.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 44.1, "fix_assets": 127.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.98, "capex_dep": 3.24, "interest_debt": 121.4, "debt_ebitda": 4.2, "debt_ratio": 49.9, "debt_mv": 54.7, "payout": 50.5, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -1.8, "np_cagr3": -10.9, "rev_yoy": 124.8, "np_yoy": 130.7, "np_vol": 46.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 80.0, "earn_yield": 4.1, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 16.9, "fwd_pe2": 13.7, "fwd_g1": 45.0, "fwd_g2": 24.0, "peg": 0.7, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["锂电产品", 19.0], ["锂电业务收入", 19.0], ["风力及光伏发电收入", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 10.8, "ret_prev2_year": -18.9, "ret_ytd": 3.2, "ret_pivot": 34.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.2, "ret_60": -7.9, "ret_120": -20.7, "ret_250": 17.7, "mdd_250": -45.0, "vol_250": 47.7, "pos_52w": 62.4}, "S": {"duration": 46, "pricing": 65, "hard": 71, "bondness": 59}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 131%,PE TTM 24.6 倍 但前瞻 PE 16.9 倍,PEG 0.70。", "自由现金流 2.3 亿(正),次年预期增速 24%(1 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 44%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 50.1%,稳定度 82%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.0%(经营现金流/市值 10.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 50.1%,稳定度 82%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 23.1 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 44%,资本开支/折旧 3.24 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 24.6 倍 粗算,约 80%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 18%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 48%,现价在 52 周高点的 62%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -0% / -8% / -21%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电力」109 家中位:PE 27.8 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 22.5% / 固定资产占比 61% / 分红率 42%。", "川能动力:PE 比行业中位低 3.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 27.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 16.6个百分点。"]}}