{"F": {"ts_code": "000151.SZ", "name": "中成股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "商贸零售", "sw2": "贸易Ⅱ", "sw3": "贸易Ⅲ", "ind": "贸易Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20000906", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 10.21, "pe_ttm": 8.3528, "pb": 4.0603, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 358275.3323, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [3.9, 16.3, 6.2, -6.1, -6.4, 15.3], "rev_series": [7.8, 21.6, 42.2, 30.7, 12.3, 11.3], "np_series": [-2.9, 0.1, -3.3, -2.6, -3.1, 3.6], "roe_series": [-36.7, 1.0, -39.6, -36.3, -59.1, 66.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 14.4, "np_ttm": 4.3, "ocf_ttm": 2.6, "fcf_ttm": 2.1, "fcf_yield": 5.9, "ocf_yield": 7.4, "gm_median": 6.2, "gm_std": 9.9, "gm_stab": -0.59, "gm_chg_2022": 2.3, "npm_median": -11.1, "roe_median": -36.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 13.2, "fix_assets": 4.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.06, "capex_dep": 2.47, "interest_debt": 6.9, "debt_ebitda": 11.0, "debt_ratio": 74.6, "debt_mv": 19.2, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -35.6, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 52.1, "np_yoy": 137.1, "np_vol": 1741.9, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 40.0, "earn_yield": 12.0, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["成套设备出口和工程承包", 39.0], ["环境科技", 5.0], ["复合材料生产", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": -15.8, "ret_prev2_year": 24.5, "ret_ytd": -14.1, "ret_pivot": 0.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.8, "ret_60": -19.4, "ret_120": -21.4, "ret_250": -23.3, "mdd_250": -39.8, "vol_250": 37.7, "pos_52w": 69.2}, "S": {"duration": 19, "pricing": 12, "hard": 21, "bondness": 35}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 4.3 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 8 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 75%,有息负债 7 亿,经营现金流/市值 7.4%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 13%,毛利率近 5 年中位 6.2%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 5.9%(经营现金流/市值 7.4%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 6.2%,稳定度 -59%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 13%,资本开支/折旧 2.47 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 8.4 倍 粗算,约 40%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -23%,最大回撤 -40%,年化波动 38%,现价在 52 周高点的 69%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 3% / -19% / -21%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「贸易Ⅱ」12 家中位:PE 12.4 / 股息率 1.7% / 毛利率 4.7% / 固定资产占比 4% / 分红率 59%。", "中成股份:PE 比行业中位低 4.0倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 9.2个百分点。"]}}