{"F": {"ts_code": "000100.SZ", "name": "TCL科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "光学光电子", "sw3": "面板", "ind": "光学光电子", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20040130", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.8, "pe_ttm": 16.3536, "pb": 1.6836, "dv_ttm": 1.7771, "total_mv": 10534279.728, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [13.6, 19.9, 8.8, 14.7, 11.6, 13.2], "rev_series": [766.8, 1635.4, 1665.5, 1743.7, 1648.2, 1840.6], "np_series": [43.9, 100.6, 2.6, 22.1, 15.6, 45.2], "roe_series": [13.7, 26.1, 0.6, 4.3, 2.9, 7.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 1871.5, "np_ttm": 64.4, "ocf_ttm": 343.7, "fcf_ttm": 156.0, "fcf_yield": 14.8, "ocf_yield": 32.6, "gm_median": 13.2, "gm_std": 3.7, "gm_stab": 0.72, "gm_chg_2022": -4.8, "npm_median": 1.1, "roe_median": 4.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 48.4, "fix_assets": 1765.6, "goodwill_ratio": 3.1, "pb_calc": 1.66, "capex_dep": 0.68, "interest_debt": 1579.9, "debt_ebitda": 4.1, "debt_ratio": 65.0, "debt_mv": 150.0, "payout": 59.4, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 3.4, "np_cagr3": 158.6, "rev_yoy": 3.6, "np_yoy": 102.2, "np_vol": 298.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 69.0, "earn_yield": 6.1, "consensus_n": 16, "fwd_pe": 14.2, "fwd_pe2": 9.7, "fwd_g1": 15.0, "fwd_g2": 46.0, "peg": 0.31, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 46.0], ["半导体显示器件", 29.0], ["电子产品分销", 9.0], ["新能源光伏及半导体材料", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": -9.0, "ret_prev2_year": 19.9, "ret_ytd": 7.9, "ret_pivot": 33.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.2, "ret_60": 6.4, "ret_120": 1.3, "ret_250": 3.2, "mdd_250": -23.2, "vol_250": 41.1, "pos_52w": 78.4}, "S": {"duration": 34, "pricing": 36, "hard": 77, "bondness": 60}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["成长兑现", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 48%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 13.2%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.8 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 4.1 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 48%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 13.2%,稳定度 72%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 14.8%(经营现金流/市值 32.6%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 13.2%,稳定度 72%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 48%,资本开支/折旧 0.68 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 16.4 倍 粗算,约 69%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 3%,最大回撤 -23%,年化波动 41%,现价在 52 周高点的 78%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -1% / 6% / 1%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「光学光电子」95 家中位:PE 61.6 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 19.3% / 固定资产占比 31% / 分红率 43%。", "TCL科技:PE 比行业中位低 45.2倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 6.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 17.0个百分点。"]}}