{"F": {"ts_code": "000099.SZ", "name": "中信海直", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "航空机场", "sw3": "航空运输", "ind": "航空机场", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20000731", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 13.87, "pe_ttm": 38.3489, "pb": 1.941, "dv_ttm": 1.1536, "total_mv": 1075993.1287, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [29.0, 26.5, 20.3, 21.2, 23.0, 23.8], "rev_series": [15.6, 16.8, 18.0, 19.7, 21.6, 22.4], "np_series": [2.2, 2.5, 1.9, 2.4, 3.0, 3.1], "roe_series": [6.5, 6.0, 4.0, 4.8, 5.8, 5.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 22.1, "np_ttm": 2.8, "ocf_ttm": 7.1, "fcf_ttm": 3.7, "fcf_yield": 3.5, "ocf_yield": 6.6, "gm_median": 23.0, "gm_std": 2.2, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": -8.7, "npm_median": 13.1, "roe_median": 5.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 30.6, "fix_assets": 23.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.94, "capex_dep": 1.26, "interest_debt": 11.8, "debt_ebitda": 1.2, "debt_ratio": 27.2, "debt_mv": 11.0, "payout": 32.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 7.5, "np_cagr3": 16.7, "rev_yoy": -2.9, "np_yoy": -18.3, "np_vol": 17.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 87.0, "earn_yield": 2.6, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 35.1, "fwd_pe2": 27.9, "fwd_g1": 9.0, "fwd_g2": 26.0, "peg": 1.35, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["通航运输", 50.0], ["其他业务", 0.0], ["通航维修", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": -20.8, "ret_prev2_year": 209.2, "ret_ytd": -32.8, "ret_pivot": 0.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.3, "ret_60": -12.4, "ret_120": -31.0, "ret_250": -42.7, "mdd_250": -46.8, "vol_250": 32.3, "pos_52w": 55.2}, "S": {"duration": 62, "pricing": 47, "hard": 49, "bondness": 34}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 38.3 倍、股息率 1.2%、毛利率近 5 年中位 23.0%、固定资产占比 31%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.2 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 31%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 23.0%,稳定度 90%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.5%(经营现金流/市值 6.6%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 23.0%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 31%,资本开支/折旧 1.26 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 38.3 倍 粗算,约 87%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -43%,最大回撤 -47%,年化波动 32%,现价在 52 周高点的 55%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / -12% / -31%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「航空机场」12 家中位:PE 19.6 / 股息率 2.1% / 毛利率 11.6% / 固定资产占比 38% / 分红率 40%。", "中信海直:PE 比行业中位高 18.7倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 11.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 7.7个百分点。"]}}