{"F": {"ts_code": "000096.SZ", "name": "广聚能源", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "石油石化", "sw2": "炼化及贸易", "sw3": "油品石化贸易", "ind": "炼化及贸易", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20000724", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.29, "pe_ttm": 25.1457, "pb": 1.5789, "dv_ttm": 0.9047, "total_mv": 437712.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [10.5, 10.1, 8.5, 7.4, 9.1, 12.5], "rev_series": [12.3, 16.2, 21.0, 25.5, 19.8, 13.7], "np_series": [1.3, 0.7, 0.6, 0.9, 1.0, 1.1], "roe_series": [4.7, 2.4, 2.0, 3.3, 3.5, 4.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 15.1, "np_ttm": 1.7, "ocf_ttm": -1.3, "fcf_ttm": -3.2, "fcf_yield": -7.3, "ocf_yield": -3.0, "gm_median": 9.1, "gm_std": 1.8, "gm_stab": 0.81, "gm_chg_2022": -2.1, "npm_median": 4.4, "roe_median": 3.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 1.4, "fix_assets": 0.5, "goodwill_ratio": 3.7, "pb_calc": 1.58, "capex_dep": 22.42, "interest_debt": 4.3, "debt_ebitda": 5.2, "debt_ratio": 24.1, "debt_mv": 9.7, "payout": 34.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -13.4, "np_cagr3": 27.7, "rev_yoy": 20.4, "np_yoy": 635.7, "np_vol": 36.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 80.0, "earn_yield": 4.0, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["成品油", 44.0], ["危化品", 4.0], ["其他", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": -15.8, "ret_prev2_year": 6.4, "ret_ytd": -18.7, "ret_pivot": -4.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 7.7, "ret_60": 7.6, "ret_120": -24.4, "ret_250": -32.4, "mdd_250": -47.7, "vol_250": 31.7, "pos_52w": 62.8}, "S": {"duration": 47, "pricing": 39, "hard": 2, "bondness": 53}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 25.1 倍、股息率 0.9%、毛利率近 5 年中位 9.1%、固定资产占比 1%、有息负债/EBITDA 5.2 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 1%,毛利率近 5 年中位 9.1%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -7.3%(经营现金流/市值 -3.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 9.1%,稳定度 81%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 1%,资本开支/折旧 22.42 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 25.1 倍 粗算,约 80%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -32%,最大回撤 -48%,年化波动 32%,现价在 52 周高点的 63%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / 8% / -24%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「炼化及贸易」30 家中位:PE 24.2 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 10.6% / 固定资产占比 43% / 分红率 49%。", "广聚能源:PE 比行业中位高 0.9倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 1.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 41.7个百分点。"]}}