{"F": {"ts_code": "000090.SZ", "name": "天健集团", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "房地产", "sw2": "房地产开发", "sw3": "住宅开发", "ind": "房地产开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19990721", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.48, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 0.5885, "dv_ttm": 1.0345, "total_mv": 650253.7992, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [23.8, 19.7, 20.4, 14.6, 15.9, 12.8], "rev_series": [171.2, 232.7, 264.6, 270.0, 213.6, 225.0], "np_series": [14.9, 19.3, 19.5, 15.2, 6.2, 2.2], "roe_series": [14.5, 16.3, 14.8, 10.7, 4.3, 1.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 228.3, "np_ttm": -1.5, "ocf_ttm": 10.4, "fcf_ttm": 10.1, "fcf_yield": 15.5, "ocf_yield": 16.0, "gm_median": 15.9, "gm_std": 2.9, "gm_stab": 0.82, "gm_chg_2022": -3.5, "npm_median": 5.6, "roe_median": 10.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 0.9, "fix_assets": 5.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 0.46, "capex_dep": 0.14, "interest_debt": 165.3, "debt_ebitda": 23.7, "debt_ratio": 74.3, "debt_mv": 254.2, "payout": 38.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -5.3, "np_cagr3": -51.4, "rev_yoy": 5.2, "np_yoy": -903.6, "np_vol": 35.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["建筑施工", 40.0], ["房地产销售", 28.0], ["房地产", 28.0], ["其他城市服务", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": -7.8, "ret_prev2_year": -5.7, "ret_ytd": -5.0, "ret_pivot": 6.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.3, "ret_60": -1.0, "ret_120": -12.0, "ret_250": -4.5, "mdd_250": -38.6, "vol_250": 35.9, "pos_52w": 71.8}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 42, "hard": 1, "bondness": 55}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -1.5 亿,近 5 年亏损 0 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 74%,有息负债 165 亿,经营现金流/市值 16.0%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 1%,毛利率近 5 年中位 15.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 15.5%(经营现金流/市值 16.0%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 15.9%,稳定度 82%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.5 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 1%,资本开支/折旧 0.14 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -4%,最大回撤 -39%,年化波动 36%,现价在 52 周高点的 72%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 3% / -1% / -12%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「房地产开发」83 家中位:PE 26.0 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 21.1% / 固定资产占比 2% / 分红率 36%。", "天健集团:PE ;股息率 比行业中位高 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 5.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.1个百分点。"]}}