{"F": {"ts_code": "000070.SZ", "name": "特发信息", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "通信", "sw2": "通信设备", "sw3": "通信线缆及配套", "ind": "通信设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20000511", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 15.52, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 12.7039, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1347745.7808, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [18.7, 11.4, 15.9, 15.0, 16.6, 17.1], "rev_series": [47.2, 45.9, 41.9, 49.4, 44.1, 44.2], "np_series": [0.1, -6.2, 0.1, -2.7, -4.0, -5.0], "roe_series": [0.5, -28.1, 0.7, -14.7, -23.6, -39.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 48.0, "np_ttm": -4.4, "ocf_ttm": 9.4, "fcf_ttm": 7.7, "fcf_yield": 5.7, "ocf_yield": 7.0, "gm_median": 15.9, "gm_std": 2.0, "gm_stab": 0.87, "gm_chg_2022": -2.8, "npm_median": -8.1, "roe_median": -23.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 14.1, "fix_assets": 9.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 12.7, "capex_dep": 1.38, "interest_debt": 27.6, "debt_ebitda": 8.8, "debt_ratio": 74.9, "debt_mv": 20.5, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 1.8, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 19.4, "np_yoy": 1007.5, "np_vol": 2158.4, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 172.4, "fwd_pe2": 86.2, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 100.0, "peg": 1.72, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 47.0], ["线缆板块", 37.0], ["智慧服务板块", 5.0], ["智慧服务", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 104.2, "ret_prev2_year": -27.6, "ret_ytd": 32.2, "ret_pivot": 278.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.9, "ret_60": -12.2, "ret_120": -9.2, "ret_250": 47.7, "mdd_250": -51.9, "vol_250": 78.7, "pos_52w": 61.3}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 44, "hard": 23, "bondness": 33}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -4.4 亿,近 5 年亏损 4 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 75%,有息负债 28 亿,经营现金流/市值 7.0%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 14%,毛利率近 5 年中位 15.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 5.7%(经营现金流/市值 7.0%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 15.9%,稳定度 87%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 14%,资本开支/折旧 1.38 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 48%,最大回撤 -52%,年化波动 79%,现价在 52 周高点的 61%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 6% / -12% / -9%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通信设备」89 家中位:PE 84.6 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 29.1% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 41%。", "特发信息:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 13.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点。"]}}