{"F": {"ts_code": "000063.SZ", "name": "中兴通讯", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "通信", "sw2": "通信设备", "sw3": "通信网络设备及器件", "ind": "通信设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19971118", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 33.07, "pe_ttm": 47.7487, "pb": 2.0995, "dv_ttm": 1.234, "total_mv": 15819149.9143, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [31.6, 35.2, 37.2, 41.5, 37.9, 30.3], "rev_series": [1014.5, 1145.2, 1229.5, 1242.5, 1213.0, 1339.0], "np_series": [42.6, 68.1, 80.8, 93.3, 84.2, 56.2], "roe_series": [10.9, 14.4, 14.7, 14.7, 12.0, 7.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 1403.7, "np_ttm": 33.1, "ocf_ttm": 24.9, "fcf_ttm": -13.1, "fcf_yield": -0.8, "ocf_yield": 1.6, "gm_median": 37.2, "gm_std": 3.7, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": 5.6, "npm_median": 6.3, "roe_median": 14.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 5.9, "fix_assets": 142.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.06, "capex_dep": 1.95, "interest_debt": 709.5, "debt_ebitda": 7.7, "debt_ratio": 67.9, "debt_mv": 44.8, "payout": 35.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 2.9, "np_cagr3": -11.4, "rev_yoy": 9.0, "np_yoy": -45.6, "np_vol": 31.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 90.0, "earn_yield": 2.1, "consensus_n": 11, "fwd_pe": 25.9, "fwd_pe2": 22.2, "fwd_g1": 84.0, "fwd_g2": 16.0, "peg": 1.62, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["运营商网络", 41.0], ["政企业务", 35.0], ["消费者业务", 24.0]], "ret_prev_year": -4.9, "ret_prev2_year": 59.0, "ret_ytd": -11.6, "ret_pivot": 38.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -4.7, "ret_60": -11.6, "ret_120": -8.3, "ret_250": -27.2, "mdd_250": -41.0, "vol_250": 50.6, "pos_52w": 61.7}, "S": {"duration": 70, "pricing": 61, "hard": 9, "bondness": 52}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 47.7 倍、股息率 1.2%、毛利率近 5 年中位 37.2%、固定资产占比 6%、有息负债/EBITDA 7.7 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 37.2%),硬资产占比 6%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.8%(经营现金流/市值 1.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 37.2%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 5.6 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 6%,资本开支/折旧 1.95 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 47.7 倍 粗算,约 90%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -27%,最大回撤 -41%,年化波动 51%,现价在 52 周高点的 62%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -5% / -12% / -8%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通信设备」89 家中位:PE 84.6 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 29.1% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 41%。", "中兴通讯:PE 比行业中位低 36.9倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 8.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 8.3个百分点。"]}}