{"F": {"ts_code": "000060.SZ", "name": "中金岭南", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "工业金属", "sw3": "铅锌", "ind": "工业金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19970123", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.51, "pe_ttm": 20.8761, "pb": 1.4277, "dv_ttm": 0.8449, "total_mv": 2891203.2975, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [6.9, 6.0, 5.1, 4.9, 6.1, 6.5], "rev_series": [302.3, 444.5, 553.4, 656.0, 598.1, 604.7], "np_series": [10.0, 11.7, 12.1, 6.9, 10.8, 8.0], "roe_series": [8.6, 9.2, 8.7, 4.9, 7.9, 4.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 715.2, "np_ttm": 13.8, "ocf_ttm": 13.9, "fcf_ttm": 2.4, "fcf_yield": 0.8, "ocf_yield": 4.8, "gm_median": 6.0, "gm_std": 0.6, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": -1.8, "npm_median": 2.2, "roe_median": 7.9, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 37.0, "fix_assets": 197.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.3, "pb_calc": 1.43, "capex_dep": 0.78, "interest_debt": 213.3, "debt_ebitda": 5.2, "debt_ratio": 60.4, "debt_mv": 73.8, "payout": 30.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 3.0, "np_cagr3": -12.9, "rev_yoy": 35.5, "np_yoy": 104.4, "np_vol": 35.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 76.0, "earn_yield": 4.8, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 16.3, "fwd_pe2": 15.5, "fwd_g1": 28.0, "fwd_g2": 5.0, "peg": 3.26, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["铜冶炼产品", 35.0], ["铅锌冶炼产品", 6.0], ["有色金属贸易业务", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 27.4, "ret_prev2_year": 10.3, "ret_ytd": 12.3, "ret_pivot": 61.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -4.4, "ret_60": -8.5, "ret_120": -8.6, "ret_250": 25.8, "mdd_250": -32.8, "vol_250": 53.1, "pos_52w": 74.4}, "S": {"duration": 41, "pricing": 70, "hard": 59, "bondness": 48}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["商品定价"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 198 亿,占总资产 37%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权来自商品本身:铅锌 的价格是通胀的组成部分,利润是商品价格的函数。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 0.8%,股息率 0.8%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 76%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 37%)和定价权(商品价格)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.8%(经营现金流/市值 4.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 6.0%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 37%,资本开支/折旧 0.78 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 20.9 倍 粗算,约 76%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 26%,最大回撤 -33%,年化波动 53%,现价在 52 周高点的 74%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -4% / -8% / -9%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「工业金属」60 家中位:PE 20.5 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 10.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 32%。", "中金岭南:PE 比行业中位高 0.4倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 4.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 9.5个百分点。"]}}