{"F": {"ts_code": "000059.SZ", "name": "华锦股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "石油石化", "sw2": "炼化及贸易", "sw3": "炼油化工", "ind": "炼化及贸易", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19970130", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.75, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 0.9118, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 919679.495, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [12.4, 20.9, 16.5, 14.8, 7.5, 12.1], "rev_series": [304.4, 385.5, 490.6, 461.4, 346.0, 417.6], "np_series": [3.2, 8.9, 5.3, 0.7, -27.9, -17.6], "roe_series": [2.4, 6.4, 3.7, 0.5, -21.7, -16.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 391.6, "np_ttm": -4.1, "ocf_ttm": -9.7, "fcf_ttm": -13.6, "fcf_yield": -14.8, "ocf_yield": -10.5, "gm_median": 14.8, "gm_std": 4.5, "gm_stab": 0.7, "gm_chg_2022": 4.2, "npm_median": 0.2, "roe_median": 0.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 37.8, "fix_assets": 94.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.91, "capex_dep": 0.36, "interest_debt": 117.6, "debt_ebitda": 9.1, "debt_ratio": 56.8, "debt_mv": 127.8, "payout": 35.0, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -5.2, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -12.9, "np_yoy": 136.9, "np_vol": 1640.8, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 10.4, "fwd_pe2": 11.2, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": -7.0, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["原油加工及石油制品", 60.0], ["聚烯烃类产品", 10.0], ["聚烯烃产品", 10.0], ["尿素", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 12.1, "ret_prev2_year": -12.6, "ret_ytd": 7.5, "ret_pivot": 51.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 25.3, "ret_60": 35.9, "ret_120": -5.1, "ret_250": 6.7, "mdd_250": -43.8, "vol_250": 36.9, "pos_52w": 86.2}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 43, "hard": 60, "bondness": 47}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 38%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 14.8%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 4.2 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 9.1 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 38%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 14.8%,稳定度 70%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -14.8%(经营现金流/市值 -10.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 14.8%,稳定度 70%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 4.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 38%,资本开支/折旧 0.36 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 7%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 37%,现价在 52 周高点的 86%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 25% / 36% / -5%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「炼化及贸易」30 家中位:PE 24.2 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 10.6% / 固定资产占比 43% / 分红率 49%。", "华锦股份:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 4.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 5.3个百分点。"]}}