{"F": {"ts_code": "000048.SZ", "name": "京基智农", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "农林牧渔", "sw2": "养殖业", "sw3": "生猪养殖", "ind": "养殖业", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19941101", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 22.31, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 3.3979, "dv_ttm": 1.6672, "total_mv": 1182882.4468, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [56.6, 50.5, 33.7, 38.7, 28.0, 13.8], "rev_series": [40.7, 32.2, 60.0, 124.2, 59.6, 48.7], "np_series": [8.7, 3.9, 7.7, 17.5, 7.1, 1.5], "roe_series": [35.5, 14.7, 30.0, 53.9, 17.5, 3.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 46.2, "np_ttm": -5.6, "ocf_ttm": 3.3, "fcf_ttm": 1.2, "fcf_yield": 1.0, "ocf_yield": 2.8, "gm_median": 33.7, "gm_std": 12.1, "gm_stab": 0.64, "gm_chg_2022": -22.9, "npm_median": 12.4, "roe_median": 17.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 53.3, "fix_assets": 51.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.4, "capex_dep": 0.41, "interest_debt": 19.8, "debt_ebitda": 9.0, "debt_ratio": 63.6, "debt_mv": 16.7, "payout": 90.6, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -6.7, "np_cagr3": -41.7, "rev_yoy": -10.7, "np_yoy": -316.4, "np_vol": 87.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 47.5, "fwd_pe2": 19.4, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 145.0, "peg": 0.33, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["猪业产品", 66.0], ["饲料产品", 14.0], ["房地产", 7.0], ["商品房", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 1.9, "ret_prev2_year": 0.5, "ret_ytd": 26.8, "ret_pivot": 84.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.3, "ret_60": 13.8, "ret_120": 7.2, "ret_250": 42.3, "mdd_250": -47.0, "vol_250": 60.9, "pos_52w": 92.2}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 43, "hard": 85, "bondness": 77}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -5.6 亿,近 5 年亏损 0 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 64%,有息负债 20 亿,经营现金流/市值 2.8%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 53%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 33.7%,稳定度 64%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.0%(经营现金流/市值 2.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 33.7%,稳定度 64%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -22.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 53%,资本开支/折旧 0.41 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 42%,最大回撤 -47%,年化波动 61%,现价在 52 周高点的 92%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / 14% / 7%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「养殖业」22 家中位:PE 39.4 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 11.1% / 固定资产占比 50% / 分红率 50%。", "京基智农:PE ;股息率 比行业中位高 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 22.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 3.1个百分点。"]}}