{"F": {"ts_code": "000042.SZ", "name": "中洲控股", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "房地产", "sw2": "房地产开发", "sw3": "住宅开发", "ind": "房地产开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19940921", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.76, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.7535, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 582392.0436, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [27.2, 29.5, 35.8, 34.2, 35.8, 37.1], "rev_series": [107.0, 86.8, 70.8, 76.2, 43.2, 25.9], "np_series": [2.8, 2.1, 0.8, -18.4, -20.2, -9.0], "roe_series": [3.6, 2.6, 1.0, -26.7, -44.9, -32.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 54.2, "np_ttm": -1.0, "ocf_ttm": 21.1, "fcf_ttm": 21.1, "fcf_yield": 36.2, "ocf_yield": 36.3, "gm_median": 35.8, "gm_std": 2.6, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": 8.6, "npm_median": -27.8, "roe_median": -26.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 2.3, "fix_assets": 7.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.75, "capex_dep": 0.02, "interest_debt": 75.0, "debt_ebitda": 8.5, "debt_ratio": 91.3, "debt_mv": 128.8, "payout": null, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -28.4, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 168.4, "np_yoy": 421.8, "np_vol": 961.6, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["房地产", 48.0], ["商品房", 48.0], ["酒店餐饮业", 1.0], ["酒店", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 70.5, "ret_prev2_year": -22.1, "ret_ytd": 15.0, "ret_pivot": 126.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.4, "ret_60": -2.1, "ret_120": 2.5, "ret_250": -3.8, "mdd_250": -29.3, "vol_250": 38.7, "pos_52w": 84.9}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 62, "hard": 4, "bondness": 35}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -1.0 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 91%,有息负债 75 亿,经营现金流/市值 36.3%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 35.8%),硬资产占比 2%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 36.2%(经营现金流/市值 36.3%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 35.8%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 8.6 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 2%,资本开支/折旧 0.02 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -4%,最大回撤 -29%,年化波动 39%,现价在 52 周高点的 85%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / -2% / 2%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「房地产开发」83 家中位:PE 26.0 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 21.1% / 固定资产占比 2% / 分红率 36%。", "中洲控股:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 14.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.3个百分点。"]}}