{"F": {"ts_code": "000039.SZ", "name": "中集集团", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "金属制品", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19940408", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.39, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.1044, "dv_ttm": 1.8359, "total_mv": 5063576.5617, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [14.3, 18.0, 15.3, 13.8, 12.5, 12.4], "rev_series": [941.6, 1637.0, 1415.4, 1278.1, 1776.6, 1566.1], "np_series": [53.5, 66.7, 32.2, 4.2, 29.7, 2.2], "roe_series": [12.8, 15.0, 6.9, 0.9, 6.0, 0.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 1594.3, "np_ttm": -3.2, "ocf_ttm": 108.0, "fcf_ttm": 64.3, "fcf_yield": 12.7, "ocf_yield": 21.3, "gm_median": 13.8, "gm_std": 2.1, "gm_stab": 0.85, "gm_chg_2022": 1.0, "npm_median": 2.4, "roe_median": 6.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 26.9, "fix_assets": 457.5, "goodwill_ratio": 1.5, "pb_calc": 1.02, "capex_dep": 1.32, "interest_debt": 370.5, "debt_ebitda": 3.3, "debt_ratio": 60.6, "debt_mv": 73.2, "payout": 33.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 3.4, "np_cagr3": -59.1, "rev_yoy": 3.7, "np_yoy": -42.1, "np_vol": 266.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 8, "fwd_pe": 16.7, "fwd_pe2": 11.9, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 41.0, "peg": 0.41, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 42.0], ["集装箱制造", 12.0], ["物流服务", 7.0], ["能源、化工及液态食品装备业务", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 33.7, "ret_prev2_year": 2.0, "ret_ytd": -5.3, "ret_pivot": 39.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 11.8, "ret_60": 3.4, "ret_120": -22.4, "ret_250": 16.8, "mdd_250": -46.2, "vol_250": 49.3, "pos_52w": 69.5}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 45, "hard": 43, "bondness": 49}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -3.2 亿,近 5 年亏损 0 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 61%,有息负债 370 亿,经营现金流/市值 21.3%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 27%,毛利率近 5 年中位 13.8%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 12.7%(经营现金流/市值 21.3%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 13.8%,稳定度 85%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 27%,资本开支/折旧 1.32 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 17%,最大回撤 -46%,年化波动 49%,现价在 52 周高点的 70%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 12% / 3% / -22%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "中集集团:PE ;股息率 比行业中位高 1.0个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 14.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 6.1个百分点。"]}}