{"F": {"ts_code": "000036.SZ", "name": "华联控股", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "房地产", "sw2": "房地产开发", "sw3": "住宅开发", "ind": "房地产开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19940617", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.95, "pe_ttm": 57.8751, "pb": 1.0778, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 554508.3865, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [65.0, 61.5, 51.9, 49.9, 48.6, 57.3], "rev_series": [27.1, 18.8, 23.4, 5.7, 4.3, 6.2], "np_series": [5.5, 4.1, 4.4, 0.8, 0.4, 0.7], "roe_series": [11.2, 8.2, 8.5, 1.5, 0.8, 1.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 7.5, "np_ttm": 1.0, "ocf_ttm": 4.6, "fcf_ttm": 4.5, "fcf_yield": 8.1, "ocf_yield": 8.4, "gm_median": 51.9, "gm_std": 4.9, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": -13.2, "npm_median": 17.6, "roe_median": 1.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 8.4, "fix_assets": 6.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.08, "capex_dep": 0.19, "interest_debt": 7.1, "debt_ebitda": 2.9, "debt_ratio": 27.6, "debt_mv": 12.8, "payout": null, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -35.8, "np_cagr3": -45.6, "rev_yoy": 60.1, "np_yoy": 1260.8, "np_vol": 53.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 91.0, "earn_yield": 1.7, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 56.4, "fwd_pe2": 30.4, "fwd_g1": 3.0, "fwd_g2": 86.0, "peg": 0.66, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["房地产出租", 20.0], ["房产销售", 20.0], ["酒店收入", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 61.8, "ret_prev2_year": 4.9, "ret_ytd": -40.2, "ret_pivot": 23.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -6.4, "ret_60": -20.4, "ret_120": -21.8, "ret_250": -14.3, "mdd_250": -50.6, "vol_250": 59.6, "pos_52w": 50.6}, "S": {"duration": 76, "pricing": 62, "hard": 13, "bondness": 29}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["轻资产现金牛", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 1261%,PE TTM 57.9 倍 但前瞻 PE 56.4 倍,PEG 0.66。", "自由现金流 4.5 亿(正),次年预期增速 86%(1 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 51.9%),硬资产占比 8%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 8.1%(经营现金流/市值 8.4%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 51.9%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -13.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 8%,资本开支/折旧 0.19 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 57.9 倍 粗算,约 91%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -14%,最大回撤 -51%,年化波动 60%,现价在 52 周高点的 51%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -6% / -20% / -22%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「房地产开发」83 家中位:PE 26.0 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 21.1% / 固定资产占比 2% / 分红率 36%。", "华联控股:PE 比行业中位高 31.9倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 30.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 6.4个百分点。"]}}