{"F": {"ts_code": "000035.SZ", "name": "中国天楹", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "环保", "sw2": "环境治理", "sw3": "固废治理", "ind": "环境治理", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19940408", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.83, "pe_ttm": 40.2885, "pb": 1.0651, "dv_ttm": 0.7453, "total_mv": 1153419.7941, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [14.7, 14.1, 19.6, 27.6, 29.3, 29.2], "rev_series": [218.7, 205.9, 67.1, 53.2, 56.7, 52.8], "np_series": [6.5, 7.3, 1.2, 3.4, 2.8, 2.8], "roe_series": [5.8, 6.4, 1.2, 3.2, 2.6, 2.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 53.9, "np_ttm": 2.9, "ocf_ttm": 7.5, "fcf_ttm": -14.9, "fcf_yield": -12.9, "ocf_yield": 6.5, "gm_median": 27.6, "gm_std": 6.1, "gm_stab": 0.78, "gm_chg_2022": 4.9, "npm_median": 5.5, "roe_median": 2.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 24.0, "fix_assets": 78.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.2, "pb_calc": 1.07, "capex_dep": 13.11, "interest_debt": 110.5, "debt_ebitda": 5.7, "debt_ratio": 66.5, "debt_mv": 95.8, "payout": 29.3, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -7.6, "np_cagr3": 32.0, "rev_yoy": 3.5, "np_yoy": 1.1, "np_vol": 84.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 88.0, "earn_yield": 2.5, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 38.0], ["垃圾处置及焚烧发电", 19.0], ["供电及垃圾处理服务", 19.0], ["保险及其他", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 14.3, "ret_prev2_year": -1.0, "ret_ytd": -11.9, "ret_pivot": 20.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.0, "ret_60": -2.7, "ret_120": -39.3, "ret_250": 9.7, "mdd_250": -47.7, "vol_250": 44.2, "pos_52w": 58.4}, "S": {"duration": 63, "pricing": 52, "hard": 38, "bondness": 50}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 40.3 倍、股息率 0.7%、毛利率近 5 年中位 27.6%、固定资产占比 24%、有息负债/EBITDA 5.7 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 24%,毛利率近 5 年中位 27.6%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -12.9%(经营现金流/市值 6.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 27.6%,稳定度 78%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 4.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 24%,资本开支/折旧 13.11 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 40.3 倍 粗算,约 88%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 10%,最大回撤 -48%,年化波动 44%,现价在 52 周高点的 58%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / -3% / -39%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「环境治理」107 家中位:PE 26.1 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 27.6% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 38%。", "中国天楹:PE 比行业中位高 14.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.9个百分点;毛利率 与行业中位持平;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 10.1个百分点。"]}}