{"F": {"ts_code": "000034.SZ", "name": "神州数码", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "IT服务Ⅱ", "sw3": "IT服务Ⅲ", "ind": "IT服务Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19940509", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 23.46, "pe_ttm": 40.2501, "pb": 2.0872, "dv_ttm": 0.2223, "total_mv": 2385271.1016, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [3.9, 3.3, 3.9, 4.0, 4.2, 3.4], "rev_series": [920.6, 1223.8, 1158.8, 1196.2, 1281.7, 1437.5], "np_series": [6.2, 2.4, 10.0, 11.7, 7.5, 5.2], "roe_series": [13.8, 4.4, 14.7, 14.5, 8.5, 5.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 1590.8, "np_ttm": 5.9, "ocf_ttm": -35.7, "fcf_ttm": -40.5, "fcf_yield": -17.0, "ocf_yield": -14.9, "gm_median": 3.9, "gm_std": 0.3, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": 0.0, "npm_median": 0.6, "roe_median": 8.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 2.2, "fix_assets": 13.2, "goodwill_ratio": 2.4, "pb_calc": 2.09, "capex_dep": 3.74, "interest_debt": 256.8, "debt_ebitda": 13.2, "debt_ratio": 79.5, "debt_mv": 107.7, "payout": 22.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 7.4, "np_cagr3": -19.6, "rev_yoy": 21.4, "np_yoy": 16.3, "np_vol": 134.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 88.0, "earn_yield": 2.5, "consensus_n": 6, "fwd_pe": 24.3, "fwd_pe2": 18.9, "fwd_g1": 66.0, "fwd_g2": 29.0, "peg": 0.84, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 41.0], ["消费类产品", 17.0], ["电子元器件业务", 14.0], ["电子元器件", 14.0]], "ret_prev_year": 11.9, "ret_prev2_year": 19.2, "ret_ytd": -15.4, "ret_pivot": 36.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -6.6, "ret_60": 5.9, "ret_120": -12.0, "ret_250": -30.3, "mdd_250": -35.9, "vol_250": 50.8, "pos_52w": 67.8}, "S": {"duration": 63, "pricing": 41, "hard": 4, "bondness": 37}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 40.3 倍、股息率 0.2%、毛利率近 5 年中位 3.9%、固定资产占比 2%、有息负债/EBITDA 13.2 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 2%,毛利率近 5 年中位 3.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -17.0%(经营现金流/市值 -14.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 3.9%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 2%,资本开支/折旧 3.74 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 40.3 倍 粗算,约 88%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -30%,最大回撤 -36%,年化波动 51%,现价在 52 周高点的 68%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -7% / 6% / -12%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「IT服务Ⅱ」134 家中位:PE 84.0 / 股息率 0.4% / 毛利率 28.1% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 35%。", "神州数码:PE 比行业中位低 43.7倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 24.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 6.4个百分点。"]}}