{"F": {"ts_code": "000031.SZ", "name": "大悦城", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "房地产", "sw2": "房地产开发", "sw3": "商业地产", "ind": "房地产开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19931008", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 2.3, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 0.9999, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 985852.059, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [31.4, 27.4, 24.1, 26.5, 21.8, 31.8], "rev_series": [384.5, 426.1, 395.8, 367.8, 357.9, 308.9], "np_series": [-3.9, 1.1, -28.8, -14.7, -29.8, -23.5], "roe_series": [-2.0, 0.6, -16.8, -10.0, -24.4, -22.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 278.9, "np_ttm": -31.8, "ocf_ttm": 1.2, "fcf_ttm": -10.9, "fcf_yield": -11.0, "ocf_yield": 1.2, "gm_median": 26.5, "gm_std": 3.4, "gm_stab": 0.87, "gm_chg_2022": -7.4, "npm_median": -5.6, "roe_median": -16.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 1.9, "fix_assets": 28.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.2, "pb_calc": 1.0, "capex_dep": 0.88, "interest_debt": 683.1, "debt_ebitda": 27.7, "debt_ratio": 77.1, "debt_mv": 692.9, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -7.9, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -19.7, "np_yoy": -765.3, "np_vol": 1124.5, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 6, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": 35.4, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["商品房销售及一级土地开发", 34.0], ["投资物业及相关服务", 11.0], ["酒店经营", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": -7.2, "ret_prev2_year": 2.4, "ret_ytd": -18.4, "ret_pivot": -8.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.0, "ret_60": -6.9, "ret_120": -28.6, "ret_250": -30.9, "mdd_250": -47.3, "vol_250": 40.6, "pos_52w": 58.8}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 47, "hard": 3, "bondness": 35}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -31.8 亿,近 5 年亏损 4 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 77%,有息负债 683 亿,经营现金流/市值 1.2%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 2%,毛利率近 5 年中位 26.5%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -11.0%(经营现金流/市值 1.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 26.5%,稳定度 87%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 2%,资本开支/折旧 0.88 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -31%,最大回撤 -47%,年化波动 41%,现价在 52 周高点的 59%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / -7% / -29%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「房地产开发」83 家中位:PE 26.0 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 21.1% / 固定资产占比 2% / 分红率 36%。", "大悦城:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 5.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点。"]}}