{"F": {"ts_code": "000027.SZ", "name": "深圳能源", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "公用事业", "sw2": "电力", "sw3": "火力发电", "ind": "电力", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19930903", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.32, "pe_ttm": 13.0656, "pb": 0.8981, "dv_ttm": 2.5316, "total_mv": 3006670.4168, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [28.8, 19.5, 17.4, 22.6, 19.7, 20.7], "rev_series": [204.5, 315.7, 375.2, 405.0, 412.1, 434.3], "np_series": [39.8, 21.3, 22.0, 20.5, 20.1, 21.0], "roe_series": [11.7, 5.1, 4.8, 4.4, 4.2, 4.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 440.3, "np_ttm": 23.0, "ocf_ttm": 109.4, "fcf_ttm": 0.1, "fcf_yield": 0.0, "ocf_yield": 36.4, "gm_median": 19.7, "gm_std": 1.7, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": -11.5, "npm_median": 6.7, "roe_median": 4.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 48.3, "fix_assets": 823.0, "goodwill_ratio": 1.7, "pb_calc": 0.59, "capex_dep": 2.54, "interest_debt": 698.0, "debt_ebitda": 5.8, "debt_ratio": 61.0, "debt_mv": 232.1, "payout": 51.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 5.0, "np_cagr3": -1.5, "rev_yoy": 2.8, "np_yoy": 11.6, "np_vol": 18.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 62.0, "earn_yield": 7.7, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 44.0], ["电力-燃机", 12.0], ["电力（燃煤）", 10.0], ["电力-燃煤", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 3.1, "ret_prev2_year": 2.8, "ret_ytd": -0.6, "ret_pivot": 19.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.5, "ret_60": -8.9, "ret_120": -11.0, "ret_250": -7.2, "mdd_250": -24.6, "vol_250": 30.6, "pos_52w": 79.8}, "S": {"duration": 28, "pricing": 45, "hard": 77, "bondness": 63}, "label": "债券代理股", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["现金流像票息:近 5 年净利润增速波动 18个百分点,营收 3 年复合 5.0%,利润在窄区间里波动。", "分红率 52%、股息率 2.5%,每年派多少钱几乎可以预测。", "杠杆:有息负债 698 亿,有息负债/EBITDA 5.8 倍,资产负债率 61%。利率升财务费用直接吃利润。", "定价方式是利差:市场看的是股息率 2.5% 比十年期国债高多少。PE 13.1 倍 倒过来就是 7.7% 的盈利收益率,这是债的定价。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 48%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 19.7%,稳定度 91%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。 另外它被市场当长债替代品交易:利率上行时跟长债一起跌,不跟硬资产一起涨,这个标签贴错会亏钱。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期跟长债走,承压;国内降息周期反而受益。拿它盯国内十年期国债收益率,不要盯黄金和美元。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.0%(经营现金流/市值 36.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 19.7%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -11.5 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 48%,资本开支/折旧 2.54 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 13.1 倍 粗算,约 62%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -7%,最大回撤 -25%,年化波动 31%,现价在 52 周高点的 80%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -0% / -9% / -11%。 债券代理股的波动应该低;波动偏高,市场没完全把它当债。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电力」109 家中位:PE 27.8 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 22.5% / 固定资产占比 61% / 分红率 42%。", "深圳能源:PE 比行业中位低 14.7倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 12.4个百分点。"]}}