{"F": {"ts_code": "000019.SZ", "name": "深粮控股", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "农林牧渔", "sw2": "农产品加工", "sw3": "粮油加工", "ind": "农产品加工", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19921012", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.13, "pe_ttm": 45.8915, "pb": 1.6561, "dv_ttm": 1.683, "total_mv": 821757.6689, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [9.8, 12.6, 13.7, 15.5, 16.7, 16.0], "rev_series": [118.8, 101.4, 83.1, 61.9, 53.8, 55.1], "np_series": [4.1, 4.3, 4.2, 3.5, 3.3, 2.4], "roe_series": [9.0, 9.3, 9.0, 7.3, 6.7, 4.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 55.1, "np_ttm": 1.8, "ocf_ttm": 3.1, "fcf_ttm": 1.8, "fcf_yield": 2.2, "ocf_yield": 3.8, "gm_median": 15.5, "gm_std": 1.5, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": 4.0, "npm_median": 5.0, "roe_median": 7.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 25.3, "fix_assets": 20.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.66, "capex_dep": 1.32, "interest_debt": 21.4, "debt_ebitda": 3.7, "debt_ratio": 38.1, "debt_mv": 26.1, "payout": 56.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -12.8, "np_cagr3": -16.7, "rev_yoy": 0.1, "np_yoy": -36.4, "np_vol": 11.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 89.0, "earn_yield": 2.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["粮油贸易及加工", 37.0], ["粮油仓储物流及服务", 9.0], ["食品、饮料及茶加工", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 8.4, "ret_prev2_year": -10.9, "ret_ytd": 4.4, "ret_pivot": 28.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 16.7, "ret_60": 10.9, "ret_120": -4.6, "ret_250": 3.3, "mdd_250": -30.7, "vol_250": 38.5, "pos_52w": 87.2}, "S": {"duration": 68, "pricing": 50, "hard": 40, "bondness": 61}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 45.9 倍、股息率 1.7%、毛利率近 5 年中位 15.5%、固定资产占比 25%、有息负债/EBITDA 3.7 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 25%,毛利率近 5 年中位 15.5%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.2%(经营现金流/市值 3.8%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 15.5%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 4.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 25%,资本开支/折旧 1.32 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 45.9 倍 粗算,约 89%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 3%,最大回撤 -31%,年化波动 38%,现价在 52 周高点的 87%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 17% / 11% / -5%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「农产品加工」26 家中位:PE 39.2 / 股息率 1.5% / 毛利率 11.9% / 固定资产占比 36% / 分红率 44%。", "深粮控股:PE 比行业中位高 6.7倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 3.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 10.2个百分点。"]}}