{"F": {"ts_code": "000008.SZ", "name": "神州高铁", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "轨交设备Ⅱ", "sw3": "轨交设备Ⅲ", "ind": "轨交设备Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19920507", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 2.49, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 3.1705, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 676378.0473, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [37.9, 33.5, 35.4, 24.4, 23.7, 27.0], "rev_series": [19.2, 22.1, 17.7, 25.1, 20.8, 21.2], "np_series": [-8.9, -13.9, -8.5, -8.3, -5.5, -8.4], "roe_series": [-12.8, -23.7, -17.7, -20.9, -16.6, -32.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 21.4, "np_ttm": -7.9, "ocf_ttm": 1.8, "fcf_ttm": 1.4, "fcf_yield": 2.1, "ocf_yield": 2.6, "gm_median": 27.0, "gm_std": 4.8, "gm_stab": 0.82, "gm_chg_2022": -2.5, "npm_median": -39.4, "roe_median": -20.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 15.5, "fix_assets": 12.5, "goodwill_ratio": 21.2, "pb_calc": 3.17, "capex_dep": 0.85, "interest_debt": 34.3, "debt_ebitda": 37.2, "debt_ratio": 72.4, "debt_mv": 50.8, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 6.1, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 3.3, "np_yoy": 43.8, "np_vol": 41.1, "loss_years": 5, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["轨道交通运营检修装备", 43.0], ["轨道交通运营维保服务", 7.0], ["其他主营业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": -1.7, "ret_prev2_year": 22.9, "ret_ytd": -12.6, "ret_pivot": 23.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.9, "ret_60": 3.7, "ret_120": -16.7, "ret_250": -16.7, "mdd_250": -33.6, "vol_250": 37.4, "pos_52w": 73.5}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 48, "hard": 25, "bondness": 29}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "商誉占比高"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -7.9 亿,近 5 年亏损 5 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 72%,有息负债 34 亿,经营现金流/市值 2.6%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 16%,毛利率近 5 年中位 27.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.1%(经营现金流/市值 2.6%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 27.0%,稳定度 82%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 16%,资本开支/折旧 0.85 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -17%,最大回撤 -34%,年化波动 37%,现价在 52 周高点的 74%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 3% / 4% / -17%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「轨交设备Ⅱ」32 家中位:PE 26.2 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 30.0% / 固定资产占比 13% / 分红率 49%。", "神州高铁:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 2.5个百分点。"]}}