{"F": {"ts_code": "000002.SZ", "name": "万科A", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "房地产", "sw2": "房地产开发", "sw3": "住宅开发", "ind": "房地产开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19910129", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.24, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 0.3783, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 3865549.878, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [29.2, 21.8, 19.6, 15.2, 10.2, 9.5], "rev_series": [4191.1, 4528.0, 5038.4, 4657.4, 3431.8, 2334.3], "np_series": [415.2, 225.2, 226.2, 121.6, -494.8, -885.6], "roe_series": [20.1, 9.8, 9.5, 4.9, -21.8, -55.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 1982.8, "np_ttm": -915.6, "ocf_ttm": 25.5, "fcf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_yield": 0.1, "ocf_yield": 6.6, "gm_median": 15.2, "gm_std": 4.9, "gm_stab": 0.68, "gm_chg_2022": -9.7, "npm_median": 4.4, "roe_median": 4.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 2.0, "fix_assets": 190.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.6, "pb_calc": 0.38, "capex_dep": 0.44, "interest_debt": 3339.6, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 77.5, "debt_mv": 863.9, "payout": null, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -22.6, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -33.4, "np_yoy": -25.2, "np_vol": 187.4, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["房地产开发及相关资产经营业务", 23.0], ["开发经营业务", 22.0], ["物业管理业务", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": -36.0, "ret_prev2_year": -30.6, "ret_ytd": -30.3, "ret_pivot": -53.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.6, "ret_60": 3.8, "ret_120": -30.5, "ret_250": -54.7, "mdd_250": -58.2, "vol_250": 33.6, "pos_52w": 46.0}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 35, "hard": 3, "bondness": 23}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -915.6 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 78%,有息负债 3340 亿,经营现金流/市值 6.6%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 2%,毛利率近 5 年中位 15.2%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.1%(经营现金流/市值 6.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 15.2%,稳定度 68%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -9.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 2%,资本开支/折旧 0.44 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -55%,最大回撤 -58%,年化波动 34%,现价在 52 周高点的 46%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / 4% / -30%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「房地产开发」83 家中位:PE 26.0 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 21.1% / 固定资产占比 2% / 分红率 36%。", "万科A:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 5.9个百分点;固定资产占比 与行业中位持平。"]}}